Showing posts with label 2010 elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 elections. Show all posts
Polls Show Wide Support For Obama-Republican Tax Plan
Huffington Post is reporting on two new polls which show that President Obama's new tax cut deal with Congressional Republicans is widely popular with Americans.
The Pew poll has support at 60-22 and the ABC/Washington Post poll has support at 69-17, with various levels of support for the various policy items which make up the deal.
Today cloture was reached in the Senate on the tax cut measure, so it is very likely that the deal will be enacted by Congress before the end of the year (possibly the week).
The Pew poll has support at 60-22 and the ABC/Washington Post poll has support at 69-17, with various levels of support for the various policy items which make up the deal.
Today cloture was reached in the Senate on the tax cut measure, so it is very likely that the deal will be enacted by Congress before the end of the year (possibly the week).
CA-AG: Cooley Concedes! Kamala Harris Wins!
The next Attorney General of California (will be a Black/multiracial woman)
As MadProfessah has been saying for awhile, Kamala Harris will be the next Attorney General of California, after all. Her opponent Steve Cooley finally officially conceded the race today as it became more and more apparent that Harris' current lead in the excruciatingly close race was insurmountable.
The latest tally has Harris with 4,376,509 votes (or 46.0%) versus 4,324,924 votes (or 45.5%) for Cooley, a lead of 51,585 votes out of 9.5 million votes cast for Attorney General (there were 4 minor party candidates). Note, starting in November 2010 general election ballots in California will only ever have two candidates (with no write-in provision), thanks to the ill-conceived Proposition 14 which passed in June 2010. That, along with "non-partisan, "citizen-driven" re-districting should make 2012 a wild and crazy year for electoral politics, even in the deep blue state of California.
It should also be noted that Cooley received some 300,000 votes more than his party's ill-fated standard bearer, failed gubernatorial candidate ("such a lovely ring to it, dontcha think?" Meg Whitman and 150,000 votes more than that (rhymes with "witch") failed U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina.
It also means that the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General all explicitly support marriage equality and oppose defending Proposition 8 in court. since they believe it is unconstitutional. In fact, I would wager every single statewide elected official in California supports marriage equality at this point (since they are all Democrats!)
It should also be noted that Cooley received some 300,000 votes more than his party's ill-fated standard bearer, failed gubernatorial candidate ("such a lovely ring to it, dontcha think?" Meg Whitman and 150,000 votes more than that (rhymes with "witch") failed U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina.
It also means that the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General all explicitly support marriage equality and oppose defending Proposition 8 in court. since they believe it is unconstitutional. In fact, I would wager every single statewide elected official in California supports marriage equality at this point (since they are all Democrats!)
CA-AG: Harris Has Insurmountable Lead of 43,050!
Kamala Harris now leads Steve Cooley by 43,050 votes (4,291,854 or 46.0% to 4,248,804 or 45.5%). According to the Secretary of State's office (pdf) there are are now 629,634 unprocessed ballots, with 361,588 provisional ballots and 228,854 vote-by-mail ballots. Los Angeles County has the most number of outstanding ballots, left to be counted 93,590 (73,928 of which are provisional). 82% of provisional ballots are usually counted. The thing to note is that Harris won on election day (when provisional ballots are turned in by approximate 3 percentage points and she lost vote-by-mail ballots by 8 percentage points. Of the ballots left to count, Cooley should be expected to have a net gain of 10K-20K votes at most.
(He wins VBM ballots netting approximately 20K votes but loses provisional ballots by 8K votes.)
Basically, we are where we were on election night when Harris had a slim lead but today there are far less votes to be counted, dramatically reducing Cooley's chances of retaking the lead. I'm still slightly worried that the percentage of votes left to be counted consists of less than 20% from Los Angeles County, but Harris won other relatively large counties by good margins as well. Also, there are some indications that the unprocessed ballot number is too high, making things even tougher for Cooley.
It is mathematically possible for Cooley to win but the probabilities are in the 1-2% range (he would have to win the outstanding ballots at net rates of 7-8% which the rest of the sample simply does not reflect). Los Angeles County Council President Eric Garcetti (and former Occidental College professor) called the race for Harris yesterday and urged media outlets to do the math to show how slim the possibility of Cooley winning actually is. Garcetti actually estimates that there are far LESS uncounted votes than in the unprocessed ballot status page since some of the counties have not updated their numbers in over two weeks and the total vote count is approaching 9.6 million. We'll probably hit 10 million votes cast statewide by the time everything is counted and certified next month.
CA-AG: Harris Regains Lead From Cooley
In the insanely close race for Attorney General of California, San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris has regained the lead from Los Angeles District Attorney Steve Cooley after trailing for most of the last week a (wait for it!) 14,043 votes out of nearly 9 million votes cast (4,083,742 to 4,069,699 with another 750k to "minor party" candidates).
However, the remaining votes to be counted are almost entirely provisional ballots which were cast on the day of the election, where Harris is estimated to have outpolled Cooley by 3 percentage points. It is becoming increasingly likely that Harris will be the first Black woman to be California Attorney General and the first Black person to be elected statewide in over 3 decades!
SD-28: Ted Lieu Announces Run For Oropeza's Seat
Assemblymember Ted Lieu has announced his plans to run for the late Jenny Oropeza's State Senate seat in the 28th District. Sadly, Oropeza died on October 22, but was re-elected posthumously in the statewide general election on Tuesday November 1st.
Lieu currently represents the 53rd Assembly district, but will lose his seat on December 6th when Betsy Butler is sworn in to represent the South Bay-area district because Lieu decided to run for Attorney General this Spring since he was forced to leave the Assembly due to term limits. He lost in the Democratic primary in June 2010 to Kamala Harris, who is still in a too-close-to-call race with Republican Steve Cooley to be California's next Attorney General.
Another person who lost in the June 2010 Democratic primary, this time in the Lieutenant Governor's race (to Gavin Newsom) was Janice Hahn, who announced today that she would not run in the special election and endorsed Lieu. Another perso who may announce a bid for the seat is Warren Furutani who represents the 55th Assembly district which covers part of the 24th Senate District. Furutani was able to win the 55th Assembly district when Laura Richardson gave it up to run against Oropeza in an August 2007 special election when Congresswoman Janice Millender-McDonald's 37th Congressional district opened up due to her untimely death. Richardson won that race and now represents CA-37.
Of course all these district lines will become open seats in the next election in 2012 when the lines are redrawn, thanks to Proposition 11 and Proposition 20 by an independent "citizen's" redistricting commission with data from the 2010 Census.
CA-AG: Cooley Pulls Ahead Of Harris In Latest Vote Tally
With the vote totals updated on Friday afternoon, Republican Steve Cooley has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time in the post-election day tallies and currently leads by 22,817 votes.
Hopefully this does not include a large percentage of Los Angeles County ballots or else things would look very bad indeed for Ms. Harris to become the next Attorney General of California.
With estimates of more than 2 million outstanding ballots to be counted and Cooley's campaign claiming there are more outstanding ballots in the 40 counties he won than the 18 Harris carried this result is really too close to call. With that many ballots, one probably has to give the edge to Cooley.
Steve Cooley (Rep) 3,518,918 46.0%
Kamala D. Harris (Dem) 3,496,101 45.7%
Diane Beall Templin (AI) 133,186 1.7%
Peter Allen (Grn) 195,921 2.5%
Timothy J. Hannan (Lib) 192,018 2.5%
Robert J. Evans (P&F) 123,197 1.6%
Hopefully this does not include a large percentage of Los Angeles County ballots or else things would look very bad indeed for Ms. Harris to become the next Attorney General of California.
With estimates of more than 2 million outstanding ballots to be counted and Cooley's campaign claiming there are more outstanding ballots in the 40 counties he won than the 18 Harris carried this result is really too close to call. With that many ballots, one probably has to give the edge to Cooley.
CA-AG: Harris Lead Now Down To 4 Digits
In the down-to-the-wire election for California Attorney General ,Kamala Harris's slim lead over Steve Cooley has been significantly reduced to 9,364 (out of over 7 million total) as numbers come in around the state, although the campaign is still expressing confidence since there are nearly one million outstanding ballots, most of which were cast within the last few days of the election when Harris was clearly leading. (In order to have a lead now, Harris must have received more votes on Election Day itself, and historically absentee and provisional votes follow the pattern of election day ballots.)
The latest tally is:
I am still relatively confident that Harris will win, but it's gnna be a squeaker. It may even involve a recount!
The latest tally is:
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala D. Harris (Dem) | 3,307,599 | 45.9% | |
| Steve Cooley (Rep) | 3,298,235 | 45.8% | |
| Diane Beall Templin (AI) | 125,507 | 1.7% | |
| Peter Allen (Grn) | 185,729 | 2.5% | |
| Timothy J. Hannan (Lib) | 180,682 | 2.5% | |
| Robert J. Evans (P&F) | 117,303 | 1.6% | |
I am still relatively confident that Harris will win, but it's gnna be a squeaker. It may even involve a recount!
Kamala Harris Now Holds Slim Lead Before Absentees Counted
San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris
The latest numbers (100% of precincts counted) from the Secretary of State Debra Bowen (who was re-elected last night) show that San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris has a pretty good chance to become the first female attorney general of California:
Kamala D. Harris DEM 3,292,836 45.9%
Steve Cooley REP 3,277,998 45.7%
Timothy J. Hannan LIB 179,594 2.5%
Peter Allen GRN 184,841 2.6%
Diane Beall Templin AI 124,841 1.7%
Robert J. Evans PF 116,690 1.6%
That's a lead of 14,838 votes. There are still absentee ballots and provisional ballots outstanding. Absentee tend to be more conservative than the electorate while provisional can be either liberal or conservative, so basically all we can say is that Harris has done amazingly well in her first statewide race for office. Even if she loses the race, maybe she should consider running for Dianne Feinstein's U.S. Senate seat in 2012?
UPDATE 11/03/2010 4:37PM
The Registrar Recorder/County Clerk of Los Angeles County is reporting that it has some 399,960 votes to be counted. Assuming that Harris maintains her 53%-39% edge in these Los Angeles County ballots, then this should results in at least an increase in Harris' lead of 50,000 votes (assuming a 12-13 point lead for Harris in these ballots). I think we can safely say that Harris has pulled this one out. In the rest of the counties there are probably no more than 800,000-1,200,000 votes to be counted, since Los Angeles generally has about 1/3-1/4 of all votes cast statewide. Cooley would have to win all those non-LA County ballots by a greater margin than 53-47 (or 6 percentage points more than Harris) assuming there are 1.2 million ballots outstanding, and would have to win by a margin greater than 54-46 (or 8 percentage points greater than Harris) if there are only 800,000 non-LA ballots outstanding to be counted. Both scenarios seem to me to give Cooley a very unlikely chance of winning. Of course it's possible, but not very probable, that the outstanding ballots could have an overwhelmingly different character than all other ballots and be very pro-Cooley but that's a very low probability possibility. Congrats to Attorney-General-elect Kamala Harris!
Iowa Rejects 3 Supreme Court Justices Who Legalized Marriage Equality
This is a heartbreaking loss for the LGBT side and supporters of an independent judiciary. After the National Organization of Marriage spent hundreds of thousands of dollars, three Justices of the 7-member Iowa Supreme Court who supported last year's unanimous Varnum v. Brien decision legalizing marriage equality have been voted out of office by Iowa voters.
A joint statement from the judges:
A joint statement from the judges:
It was our great privilege to serve the people of Iowa for many years. Throughout our judicial service we endeavored to serve the people of Iowa by always adhering to the rule of law, making decisions fairly and impartially according to the law, and faithfully upholding the constitution.
We wish to thank all of the Iowans who voted to retain us for another term. Your support shows that many Iowans value fair and impartial courts. We also want to acknowledge and thank all the Iowans, from across the political spectrum and from different walks of life, who worked tirelessly over the past few months to defend Iowa's high-caliber court system against an unprecedented attack by out-of-state special interest groups.
Finally, we hope Iowans will continue to support Iowa's merit selection system for appointing judges. This system helps ensure that judges base their decisions on the law and the Constitution and nothing else. Ultimately, however, the preservation of our state's fair and impartial courts will require more than the integrity and fortitude of individual judges, it will require the steadfast support of the people.
Chief Justice Marsha Ternus
Associate Justice Michael Streit
Associate Justice David BakerVery sad news.
2010 CA Statewide Election Results Summary
Here are the results from the 2010 Statewide General Election in California.
I'm very happy about Boxer and Brown winningbut verklempt that the Democrats were not able to shut out Republican Steve Cooley from a statewide constitutional office.
UPDATE 11/03/2010 07:01am:
The attorney general race may not be over, folks! With 96.2% of precincts counted the totals are:
If Haris holds on, it means Prop 8 will definitely not be appealed by the state of California, and she will be the first African-American person elected statewide in over 32 years! Go, girl!
Proposition MadProfessah California
19 (Marijuana) YES NO 45-55
20 (Redistricting) NO YES 64-36
21 (State Parks) YES NO 41-59
22 (Local Funds) NO YES 63-37
23 (Suspends AB-32) NO NO 41-59
24 (Ends Tax Cuts) YES NO 40-60
25 (Majority Vote) YES YES 54-46
26 (2/3 Fee Vote) NO YES 55-45 27 (Undoes Prop 11) YES NO 40-60
Statewide Races MadProfessah California
Governor Brown Brown U.S. Senator Boxer* Boxer*
Lieutenant Governor Newsom Newsom
Attorney General Harris Cooley
Secretary of State Bowen* Bowen*
Treasurer Lockyer* Lockyer* Controller Chiang* Chiang*
Insurance Commissioner Jones Jones
Supt. of Public Inst. Torlakson TorlaksonI'm very happy about Boxer and Brown winning
UPDATE 11/03/2010 07:01am:
The attorney general race may not be over, folks! With 96.2% of precincts counted the totals are:
Peter Allen GRN 180,931 2.6%
Steve Cooley REP 3,182,605 45.5%
Robert J. Evans PF 113,512 1.6%
Timothy J. Hannan LIB 175,223 2.5%
Kamala D. Harris DEM 3,222,987 46.1%
Diane Beall Templin AI 120,550 1.7%
If Haris holds on, it means Prop 8 will definitely not be appealed by the state of California, and she will be the first African-American person elected statewide in over 32 years! Go, girl!
Today is Election Day! Go Vote!!
Here, again, are my endorsements for the 2010 California Statewide General election:
Proposition ME LAT CALITICS CA DEM LA DEM LWV
19 (Marijuana) YES NO YES --- YES ---
20 (Redistricting) NO YES NO NO NO NO
21 (State Parks) YES NO YES YES YES ---
22 (Local Funds) NO NO --- NO NO ---
23 (Suspends AB-32)NO NO NO NO NO NO
24 (Ends Tax Cuts) YES NO YES YES YES YES
25 (Majority Vote) YES YES YES YES YES YES
26 (2/3 Fee Vote) NO NO NO NO NO NO
27 (Undoes Prop 11)YES NO YES YES YES NO
Statewide Races ME LA TIMES DEMOCRATS
Governor Brown Brown Brown
U.S. Senator Boxer* Boxer* Boxer*
Lieutenant Governor Newsom Newsom Newsom
Attorney General Harris Cooley Harris
Secretary of State Bowen* Bowen* Bowen*
Treasurer Lockyer* Lockyer* Lockyer*
Controller Chiang* Chiang* Chiang*
Insurance Commissioner Jones Jones Jones
Supt. of Public Inst. Torlakson Aceves Torlakson
Bd. of Equalization, #1 Yee* --- Yee*
Bd. of Equalization, #2 --- --- Parker
Bd. of Equalization, #3 --- --- Christian-Heising
Bd. of Equalization, #4 --- --- Horton*
Nate Silver's Final 2010 Election Predictions
Above are the final predictions made by Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight about the 2010 id-Term elections for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and Governors races.
4 Questions To Ask Before You Vote
From Dailykos.com here are 4 questions everyone should ask themselves before they vote in the 2010 elections:
Questions:
- What was the average monthly private sector job growth in 2008, the final year of the Bush presidency, and what has it been so far in 2010?
- What was the Federal deficit for the last fiscal year of the Bush presidency, and what was it for the first full fiscal year of the Obama presidency?
- What was the stock market at on the last day of the Bush presidency? What is it at today?
- Which party's candidate for speaker will campaign this weekend with a Nazi reenactor who dressed up in a SS uniform?
Answers:
- In 2008, we lost an average of 317,250 private sector jobs per month. In 2010, we have gained an average of 95,888 private sector jobs per month. (Source) That's a difference of nearly five million jobs between Bush's last year in office and President Obama's second year.
- In FY2009, which began on September 1, 2008 and represents the Bush Administration's final budget, the budget deficit was $1.416 trillion. In FY2010, the first budget of the Obama Administration, the budget deficit was $1.291 trillion, a decline of $125 billion. (Source) Yes, that means President Obama has cut the deficit -- there's a long way to go, but we're in better shape now than we were under Bush and the GOP.
- On Bush's final day in office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 closed at7,949, 1,440, and 805, respectively. Today, as of 10:15AM Pacific, they are at 11,108, 2,512, and 1,183. That means since President Obama took office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 have increased 40%, 74%, and 47%, respectively.
- The Republican Party, whose candidate for speaker, John Boehner, will campaign with Nazi re-enactor Rich Iott this weekend. If you need an explanation why this is offensive, you are a lost cause.
Saturday Politics: Field Poll Says Newsom Leads; Harris Tied With Cooley
The latest Field Poll shows that in the Lieutenant Governor race Gavin Newsom is leading Abel Maldonado 42-37 while Los Angeles District Attorney Steve Cooley and San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris are basically tied 39-38 for California Attorney General.
I'm pretty sure Gavin will win the LG race but I'm worried about the AG race. The internal details from Field are below:
I'm pretty sure Gavin will win the LG race but I'm worried about the AG race. The internal details from Field are below:
Cooley and Harris are obtaining broad support of rank-and-file voters within their own respective parties. Among Republicans, Cooley is preferred 71% to 6%, while Democrats are supporting Harris 68% to 13%. Non-partisans and those registered with minor parties, who represent 17% of likely voters, are narrowly backing Harris by a 34% to 32% margin.
Cooley is maintaining large preference leads among voters in the traditionally Republican-leaning regions of Southern California outside of Los Angeles County (47% to 28%) and the Central Valley (44% to 30%). In his home county of Los Angeles, Cooley narrowly trails Harris 43% to 37%. Harris is preferred by a nearly two-to-one margin (52% to 27%) in the San Francisco Bay region where she lives. She also leads in less populated areas of Northern California outside the Bay Area (45% to 23%).
There is also a big coastal county-inland county divide in voter preferences in the A-G race. Cooley leads by eighteen points (46% to 28%) among voters in the state’s less populous inland counties, while Harris is preferred by six points (42% to 36%) among voters living in counties bordering the Pacific Ocean or San Francisco Bay.
Women are backing Harris by eleven points, 43% to 32%. Men are supporting Cooley by twelve points (45% to 33%).
Voters age 65 or older are backing Cooley by five points (44% to 39%). He leads among voters age 40–49 (39% to 34%). Harris is leading Cooley by four points (40% to 36%) among voters 50–64. Voters under age 40 are about evenly divided in their preferences.
White non-Hispanics favor Cooley by eight points (43% to 35%). Harris is preferred by large margins among Latinos and African-Americans. Each of the three Asian-American voter segments examined by the poll were dividing their preferences fairly evenly between the candidates, although large proportions remained undecided.
Cooley is preferred by two points (40% to 38%) among the 55% of voters who either already have voted by mail or intend to do so in the coming days. Among the 21% of voters who have already voted Cooley’s lead is even wider – 46% to 38%. Voters intending to vote at their local precinct on Election Day are evenly divided, 37% for Cooley and 37% for Harris.
CA-SEN: Boxer Phone Bank Flashmob In Weho 2pm Today
U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer who is in a tightening re-election race with failed former Hewlett-Packard CEO Republican Carly Fiorina that could decide who controls the upper house of Congress will be in West Hollywood today at 2pm for a Phone Bank Flashmob.
Yesterday Fiorina was hospitalized with an infection yesterday and still has not returned to the campaign trail but the National Republican Senatorial Committee has bought another $3 million of television ads supporting her.
Boxer is a strong supporter of LGBT equality and last week released a list of LGBT community leaders supporting her (that includes MadProfessah).
With even Meg Whitman endorsing Jerry Brown for Governor, the Senate race is the most important race in the State we must focus on. Come out today to meet Boxer at 2pm at Plummer Park and make some calls to friends and family urging them to vote for Barbara Boxer today!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)














