ATP Tour Finals: Federer v Djokovic, Nadal v Murray Semifinals

The semifinals of the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals are set: Roger Federer will play Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play Andy Murray. Federer and Nadal are undefeated through the first three round-robin rounds with Nadal only dropping his very first set of the tournament against Andy Roddick, although Djokovic should probably have won the first set in their match. Federer was pretty lucky not to lose the first set against Robin Soderling.

That being said, Nadal has a 8-4 career edge against Murray, a 14-7 lead against Federer and a 15-7 lead against Djokovic. He is, after all, the World's #1 player and the current holder of 3 of the 4 major title, having won 3 in a row in 2010. He has never won this tournament, because he's usually dead tired by this point in the season. He did not play in 2008 and lost all 3 round-robin matches last year. However, it's 2010 and I expect him to at least get to the final, where I suspect he will play Federer in a mouth-watering final. Although Nadal leads the Greatest Of All Time in their overall head-to-head and beat him once this year as well as the last time they met on a hard court (the inexplicable 2009 Australian Open final), their hard court record head-to-head is tied 3-3 with Federer beating Nadal twice in the semifinals of the year-ending championships in 2006 and 2007. However, in Finals one would have to give the edge to Nadal (12-5).

Can Novak and Andy stop another Fedal final? Possibly, since Murray sports a 2-1 lead over Nadal (4-4 career on hard courts) this year, both time winning on hard courts including the last time they played in the semifinals of Toronto (where Murray also beat Federer). His single loss to Nadal came in London earlier this year in the Wimbledon semis. For all intents and purposes that was the equivalent of a Tour final. Murray himself has been lowering expectations about his chances against Nadal (and Federer) in his press conferences this week. However, I think he probably has the best chance of the four of preventing Nadal from winning his first tour championships.

While Nadal faces the person most likely to beat him, Federer plays the person least likely to beat him. (He beat Murray this week in round-robin play but has an overall 5-8 losing record to the Scot.) Djkovic trails Federer 6-12 in their career match-up, including 1-3 for the year. Of course that one win was in the semifinals of the 2010 US Open where Federer held two match points and lost. One does feel if the match is close, Federer will likely lose it. Ever since then, Federer has beaten Novak relatively easily and I expect that will be the case tomorrow.

MadProfessah's predictions: Nadal defeats Murray in 3 sets; Federer defeats Djokovic in 2 sets.

Nate Silver's Final 2010 Election Predictions

Above are the final predictions made by Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight about the 2010 id-Term elections for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and Governors races.

US OPEN 2010: Men's and Women's Review

For the first time in a grand slam, MadProfessah has predicted correctly the last 3 rounds (7 matches) on both the men's and women's side: that is 14 of 14 correct calls from the (men's and women's) quarterfinals, (men's and women's) semifinals and (men's and women's) finals.

To put that in perspective, there's a 1/2 chance of getting any particular call correct. So, the expected value of correct calls when making 14 would be 7. The probability of getting 14 of 14 correct is like tossing a fair coin and have it come up heads 14 times in a row. The probability of this event is (0.5)¹⁴=0.000006104, which is a pretty small number (0.006 %).

BIGGEST WINNER (Men)
Rafael Nadal was the biggest winner on the men's side, being able to achieve the career grand slam by finally winning the US Open. He was clearly the most dominating player in the draw, refusing to cede a set until the final and saving a ridiculous number of break points against his serve during the tournament.
Runner-up: Novak Djokovic for finally being able to break through in a major again by defeating Roger Federer in a major semifinal to show that he has a legitimate claim as the #2 player in the world.

BIGGEST LOSER (Men)
Andy Murray was the biggest loser on the men's side, having lost in the 3rd round to Stanislas Wawrinka, when expectations had been raised because Murray had won a summer hard-court Master's title and had previously made two hard-court major finals. The talented Brit had a bad day at the office and showed that even players at the top of rankings can lose to anyone in the Top 20 if the lower-ranked player plays with belief and heart.


BIGGEST WINNER (Women)
Kim Clijsters was the biggest winner on women's side, by becoming the first champion to defend her title in New York since her vanquished semifinal opponent Venus Williams did it in 2001. Clijsters lost one set in the entire tournament, a tie-break set to Venus and there really was never much doubt that if she made it to the final that she would be able to defeat whoever emerged from the Top half of the draw.
Runner-Up: Vera Zvonareva was the second biggest winner on the women's side by reaching her second consecutive major final, where (unfortunately) she was unable to demonstrate her best tennis.


BIGGEST LOSER (Women)
Maria Sharapova was the biggest loser on the women's side. She had the potential to reach furthest in the draw but ended up losing in the 4th round to top seed Caroline Wozniacki. Sharapova did not play well in that match, and Wozniacki dismissed her in straight sets.

49 Days Till Election Day: Democrats Likely To Lose Control

Nate Silver, the election predictions guru whose fivethirtyeight.com blog was recently added to The New York Times online site as FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus has put his sights on predicting the outcome of the November 2nd mid-term elections and things do NOT look good for the Democrats 7 weeks out

There's a reasonable chance the Democrats could lose control of the Senate:

Republicans now have approximately a one-in-four chance of winning enough Senate seats in the Nov. 2 elections to claim an outright majority of the chamber, FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecasting model shows.

The bigger problem is the increasingly likelihood they will lose control of the House:

Republicans have a two-in-three chance of claiming a majority of House seats in November, the FiveThirtyEight forecasting model estimates. And their gains could potentially rival or exceed those made in 1994, when they took a net of 54 seats from the Democrats.

In one sense, a strong performance by the Republicans on Nov. 2 is to be expected. The opposition party typically gains seats – on average, about 20 in midterm elections since 1994 – after the other party wins the White House, as the Democrats did in 2008. Nevertheless, both the magnitude of the Republicans’ potential gains, and the rapidity with which the political balance is poised to shift back to them after two cycles in which Democrats won nearly every competitive election, is unusual by recent standards. According to the model, Republicans have about a one-in-three chance of winning at least 54 seats, their total in 1994, and nearly a one-in-four chance of gaining at least 60.

Were the Republicans to achieve an outcome like that, one might need to look to the first half of the previous century for precedent; in 1948, for example, the Democrats added a net of 75 seats in the House, just two years after losing 54.

Today is the last primary day of the 2010 elections, if you live in one of those states, get out and vote!

US OPEN 2010: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the US Open for 2010. I previously correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

Roger Federer SUI (2) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). For the fourth year in a row, Roger Federer must defeat Novak Djokovic to reach the final of the US Open. Three of their four meetings have been in the semifinals in New York, and it should not be forgotten that the Serb is the last person to beat the Swiss player at this stage in a grand slam, at the 2008 Australian Open. Federer leads their career head-to-head 10-5 (8-4 on hard courts) and should be expected to win again. However, it's unlikely to be easy. Although Djokovic has only ever won set against Federer in New York and lost 12, but almost every set has been very close including 3 tiebreak sets. Djokovic will probably not be affected by a partisan New York crowd rooting for his defeat and a mouth-watering Nadal-Federer final; he beat Roger in the final of his own tournament in his hometown of Basel last year. That win was indoors, and it is very likely that the conditions will become a factor on Saturday. So far, Federr has been the player to take the most advantage of the difficult conditions of anyone in the draw. PREDICTION: Federer in 3 or 4 sets or Djokovic in 5 sets.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (25) Mikhail Youzhny RUS (12). Nadal has been playing some of his best tennis, ever, in New York, especially his serve which has now improved to the point where the Spaniard is regularly reaching 130 mph. He has now become the player least likely to have their service broken. Nadal did well to dismiss Fernando Verdasco in straight sets in the quarterfinals and has yet to lose a set in the tournament. Youzhny has a lost at least one set ni every round he has played here, except for a straight set first round victory. Surprisingly, Youzhny has quite a good record against Nadal, with 4 wins to 7 losses (4 to 3 on hard courts) and has a notable victory over Nadal at the U.S. Open, having beaten the then-20-year-old Spaniard in 4-sets in the 2006 Quarterfinals. However, neither player is the same player they were four years ago, with both having improved tremendously. Nadal is now the #1 player in the world and riding a 19 grand-slam match winning streak, while Youzhny is just out of the Top 10 at #14 in the world. The Russian played a grueling 5-set match to dispose of Stanislas Wawrinka in the quarters and has demonstrated that he is not intimidated by any opponent. The question does he have the game to prevent the most anticipated match in tennis history? Doubtful.  PREDICTION: Nadal (in 4 sets). 

2010 Emmy Awards Predictions

The  2010 Prime Time Emmy Awards are tonight. The two biggest awards of the night are the Series awards. Previously I discussed which of the nominees I actually watch.

Here are my predictions for the Comedy Series and Drama Series winners.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Glee
Modern Family
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Nurse Jackie
30 Rock
The Office

SHOULD WIN: Modern Family.
WILL WIN: Glee.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Lost
Breaking Bad
Dexter
Mad Men
True Blood
The Good Wife

SHOULD WIN: Lost.

WILL WIN: Mad Men.

In addition, there are numerous Acting categories. I predict that Jim Parson, Jane Lynch, Edie Falco and Eric Stonestreet will win in the Comedy categories. I really can't even hazard a guess in the Drama categories, though I think Terry O'Quinn will win (again) for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series for John Locke in Lost.

WIMBLEDON 2010: Men's Finals Preview

Tomas Berdych CZE (12) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). For the first time I will be watching a grand slam final live, on site. Sadly, it is also the first time in 8 years that my favorite male player Roger Federer will not be in the Wimbledon men's final.

I have previously predicted the results of the quarterfinals (1 of 4) and semifinals (0 of 2), so clearly I've not been having great results in predicting the men's matches this year. It's a bit hard to pick a winner between Tomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal. On paper, Nadal should win since he has a 7-3 career head-to-head record against the young Czech. However, clearly Berdych is not the same player who has lost to Nadal 7 times (and had lost to Federer 8 times). If Berdych wins, he will become the first player to beat the World #3, World #2 and World #1 to win a slam. A very unlikely event.

If Nadal wins he will have completed the Roland Garros-Wimbledon double for the second time, and will reach his 8th Grand Slam title, just 8 behind Roger Federer, despite being 5 years his junior.

MadProfessah's prediction: Nadal (in 3 or 4 sets).

WIMBLEDON 2010: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2010. This Wimbledon is very special for me, because it will be one where I will finally visit the All-England Tennis Club for the first time.

I previously predicted the women's quarterfinals and was right in 2 of 4 matches.

Serena Williams USA (1) vs Petra Kvitova CZE. This match could be trickier than it looks on paper. Although I predicted this match up, not playing her best tennis and experiencing movement difficulties. The two have played once before, in the second round of this year's Australian Open, with Serena winning a straight sets match which was closer than the 6-1 6-2 scoreline. Kvitvova is a lefty, and has a good serve and powerful groundstrokes. She's also a good mover. But with Serena serving up an average of a dozen aces per match, she is practically unbeatable. This match will be closer, but the end result will be the same, with Serena Williams the overwhelming favorite to reach her third consecutive Wimbledon Ladies' final and win her fourth Wimbledon singles title. PREDICTION: Serena in 2 sets.

Venus Williams USA (2) Tsvetana Pironkova BUL vs. Vera Zvonareva RUS (21). One of the most stunning upsets in Wimbledon history occurred earlier this week when 5-time Wimbledon champion lost in straight sets to the unheralded Bulgarian. Pironkova is dangerous, with tricky spin and deceptive power, but clearly she can be overpowered. Venus hit 29 unforced errors in 17 games of tennis (but she also hit 22 winners). The problem was with her feet, which got her to balls late (or early) causing her to hit them feet out of the court. Zvonareva has long been one of my favorites (so is Kuznetsova) but there's no question that she's a headcase. Getting through a 3-set slugfest with Kim Clijsters was an excellent result for the Russian. It's possible that Venus' loss today and Clijsters' win yesterday were the bigger factors in the Belgian's defeat in the quarterfinal. The two have played once before, last year on hard courts in Moscow after Zvonareva had been out for months with a tn ankle injury and Pironkova won easily in straight sets. That will not be the case this time. Zvonareva deserves to win this match and I believe she will. PREDICTION: Zvonareva in 3 sets.

Federer Loses 2nd Grass Court Match in 7 Years!

Roger Federer lost his 2nd grass court match in 7 years in the final of Halle to Lleyton Hewitt 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4, the first time in 16 consecutive matches the former Australian #1 had not lost to the 16-time major champion. Federer's only other loss on grass had come at the hands of Rafael Nadal in the epic 2008 Wimbledon final, which many observers call the greatest tennis match ever played.

Federer had a 29-match win streak on grass at Halle dating back to 2002, and after losing to Robin Soderling in the French Open quarterfinals this year and failing to defend that title he faces defending his Wimbledon title for the first time with a loss in a grass court warm-up tournament. Federer is going for his record-tying 7th Wimbledon title, this times as World #2, behind Nadal.

As Federer approaches the end of his storied career the shock defeats will become more frequent and the major wins will become less frequent. However, with 16 Grand Slam singles title, 2 more than the previous record, he is playing for the record books, and I expect him to win at least two more, ending his caeer with 18 or 19 after the 2012 London Olympics.

FRENCH OPEN 2010: Women's Final Preview

Francesca Schiavone ITA (17) vs.

Samantha Stosur AUS (7)

One of the most surprising grand slam tournaments in recent tennis history is coming to a conclusion with a final where for the first time in 6 years neither of the combatants has been in a a major final previously. World #7 Samantha Stosur has reached this point by beating a series of excellent clay court players, one after another starting with a tight dismissal of Justine Henin, followed by outlasting Serena Williams and ending with a 2-set blowout of Jelena Jankovic. On the other hand, Francesca Schiavone has had the best luck of anyone in the tournament, having won every set she has played except for the very first, all the while facing a significantly lower level of competition. In her last match, her opponent Elena Dementieva retired after losing a close tie-break set!

In 2009 Schiavone and Stosur met in the first round of Roland Garros and the Australian won easily 6-4 6-2. Head-to-head Schiavone won the first match the two played in 2005 and has not won in 4 attempts, with two of these matches occurring on clay.

Although Schiavone is a big match player and will probably handle the pressure of playing in her first major final than Stosur, the Australian has so much more power in her game that even with a slump she should still win her first major singles title relatively easily.

MadProfessah's pick: Stosur in 2 sets.

FRENCH OPEN 2010: Women's Semifinals Preview

I previously made predictions of the four women's quarterfinals and four men's quarterfinals and got 4 of 8 results correct at this year's French Open. The 2010 Roland Garros women's semifinals are now set.

Serena Williams USA (1) Samantha Stosur AUS (7) vs. Jelena Jankovic SRB (4). Samantha Stosur has the most clay court wins of anyone on tour this year. She showed that she can take out players who are expected to beat her with two exceptional, consecutive 3-set wins over 4-time French Open champ Justine Henin and 12-time major champion Serena Williams. She may possess the best serve in women's tennis right now. It was this difference which was most glaring in her defeat of Serena in the quarters. Stosur had quieter (but more effective) service stats (6 aces to one double fault) than Serena (13 aces, 9 double faults). Her second serve has a wicked kick which will push almost any opponent deep behind the baseline. Her next opponent is Jelena Jankovic who has lived up to her seeding (the only member of the Top 4 to do so) and is appearing in her sixth career major semifinal. Stosur is appearing in her second. Jankovic also sports a 3-1 career head-to-head edge over the Australian, but then again so did Serena Williams, with all their previous encounters occurring on hard courts. I actually like and appreciate both players' games so I will not be upset which ever player wins. In this case, I think Stosur will have the larger momentum and greater boost of her confidence having already beaten two great champions to reach this point. I think she will not stop until Stosur becomes a grand slam champion herself.
MadProfessah's pick: Stosur in 3 sets.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (3) Francesca Schiavone ITA (17) vs. Elena Dementieva RUS (5). This was supposed to be where Venus Williams was supposed to take advantage of the top heavy draw and finally make her way to another French Open final. Sadly, that dream was deferred by the excellent play of Nadia Petrova who then could not sustain a lead against her friend and doubles partner Elena Dementieva, an ended up choking on 3rd-set bagel. Francesca Schiavone is a big match player. A few weeks before her 30th birthday she is in her first major semifinal, the first woman from Italy to be in a major final in over a generation. Although I love her game (that one handed backhand! the shotmaking!), I predicted that the World's 3rd ranked player would take her out easily but Schiavone flipped the script aruond and dismissed Caroline Wozniacki 6-2 6-3 in a match that was not as close as the score indicates. This match is the hardest one for me to predict. The two have played 10 tour matches, with only one on clay (won by Dementieva) and with the Russian holding a slight 6-4 edge. Just as Schiavone has indicated her mental toughness in big matches, Dementieva has shown the opposite. I think that either Dementieva will be so nervous that Schiavone will blow her off the court in straight sets, or if Dementieva is able to win a set, she will be able to gut out an ugly 3-set win for her 3rd major final, her first in over six years. MadProfessah's pick: Schiavone in 2 sets or Dementieva in 3 sets.

FRENCH OPEN 2010: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at Roland Garros this year.

Serena Williams USA (1) vs. Samantha Stosur AUS (7) Justine Henin BEL (22). For the second year in a row, the winner of the tournament will be decided in the quarterfinal in which Serena Williams competes. Last year, Serena lost a nervy, tension-filled (frankly, ugly) quarterfinal match to eventual champion, Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova. This year instead of playing the 4-time Roland Garros champion Henin (who had a 24-match winning streak since Tathiana Garbin beat the 2003 defending champion in the second round at this tournament in 2004) Serena will face last year's semifinalist Samantha Stosur. The Serena-Justine showdown had been the most anticipated match on either side of the draw, even in a section of the draw called the "quarter of death" by Brad Gilbert. However, thanks to the hard-hitting, brilliant-serving Sam Stosur, that storyline is now dismissed from the tournament. Serena and Sam have only played four times (all on hard courts) with Stosur winning once, in Stanford last year. Serena is a woman on a mission, and will not be denied her chance to reach another Roland Garros final. PREDICTION: Serena in 3 sets.

Yaroslava Shvedova KAZ vs. Jelena Jankovic SRB (4). Surely Jelena Jankovic is too strong a defensive player to go through her entire career without winning a major? She made it to the 2008 U.S. Open final (losing to Serena in two close sets) but I believe that it is clay where her particular skills should be rewarded the most. Following that first major final Jankovic fell into a major downward spiral (although not as precipitous a decline as her Serbian countrywoman Ana Ivanovic, who although she possesses the 2008 French Open title still does not own a reliable second (or first) serve.) Jankovic has played well on clay this year, having beaten both Williams sisters on her way to the Rome final (which she lost). She should seize on the good fortune of not being in the "quarter of death" and sneak into her second major final. PREDICTION: Jankovic in 2 sets.

Francesca Schiavone ITA (17) vs. Caroline Wozniacki DEN (3). Wozniacki can regain the World #2 ranking by getting to the final, although I suspect her current Italian opponent and future Russian opponent will do their best to help maintain Venus Williams' hold on that position. This is the veteran Schiavone's 4th career quarterfinal, her second in Paris since reaching that lofty height in her debut at the tournament in 2001. The young Dane had never been past the 4th round of a major despite being on the tour for 3 years until her major breakthrough in New York (over Svetlana Kuznetsova in one of the very best matches of 2009) last year, where she lost the final to Kim Clijsters. In these clashes between wily veteran and talented youngster it is often the older player who comes out the loser because they more viscerally understand the significance (and rarity) of the moment and I expect this case to be no different. Youth will be served, again. PREDICTION:Wozniacki in 2 sets.

Elena Dementieva RUS (5) vs. Nadia Petrova RUS (19) Venus Williams USA (2). Oh, Venus! After getting past her 3rd Round Roland Garros jinx easily she meekly went out to the hard-hitting, mentally fragile Petrova on a cold wet day in straight sets, losing to someone she had never lost to on any surface. Sigh. Soon to turn 30 years-old, and for once blessed with a draw that had all the deadliest players in the other half for once, Venus couldn't keep it together long enough to make another deep run at the clay major, despite having amassed a very good record on clay this year. Petrova has always done well in Paris, first breaking through here at age 17 into the semifinals in 2003. Her opponent, Elena Dementieva, has quietly snuck through the draw, losing only one set in a tiebreak to Aleksandra Wozniak of Canada, with almost no one discussing her chances despite being a finalist here in 2004 and having played the best women's match on tour last year. Matches between the Russians are very often hideous, very tight affairs with one player losing worse than the other instead of one player winning decisively. That's what I expect to see in this match. Head-to-head there's not much between these two, they are tied 7-7 in career matches, 2-2 in clay court matches and 1-1 in grand slam matches. Petrova has won exactly 2 major quarterfinal matches before, here in Paris, while the 6-month-older Dementieva has won 8 major quarterfinals, although only one in Paris. PREDICTION: Dementieva in 3 sets.

FRENCH OPEN 2010: Men and Women Singles Draw

The 2010 French Open singles draws are out. Play starts today, Sunday May 23rd. There are several first round matches to worry about (Roddick vs Nieminen, Venus versus Schnyder).

Most observers predict another Federer versus Nadal men's final. The women's side is wide open, but somehow I doubt that a Williams will be there. More specific predictions later.

2010 Oscars: MadProfessah's Final Picks

I have previously posted my predictions for who I think should win (and who I think will win) in the Top 8 categories.

Here are my picks for all 24 categories:

Best Picture: Avatar (2nd: The Hurt Locker)
Director: Kathryn Bigelow (2nd: James Cameron )
Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker (2nd: Inglourious Basterds)
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (2nd: Precious)
Actor: Jeff Bridges (2nd: Jeremy Renner)
Actress: Sandra Bullock (2nd: Meryl Streep)
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (2nd: Maggie Gyllenhaal)
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (2nd: Stanley Tucci)
Editing: The Hurt Locker (2nd: Avatar)
Art Direction: Avatar (2nd: Sherlock Holmes)
Sound: Avatar (2nd: The Hurt Locker)
Sound Editing: Avatar (2nd: The Hurt Locker)
Cinematography: Avatar (2nd: The Hurt Locker)
Costumes: The Young Victoria (2nd: Bright Star)
Documentary: The Cove (2nd: Food, Inc)
Foreign Language: A Prophet (2nd: The White Ribbon)
Animated Film: Up (2nd: Fantastic Mr. Fox)
Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death (2nd: Logorama )
Live Action Short: The New Tenants (2nd: Abracadabra )
Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster (2nd: The Last Truck)
Makeup: Star Trek
Score: Up (2nd: Sherlock Holmes)
Song: The Weary Kind (from Crazy Heart)
Visual Effects: Avatar

I'll check in later. This year is much harder to predict than most!

2010 Oscars: Nominations Announced

The 2010 Oscar Nominations were announced this morning and MadProfessah did pretty well in predicting the Top 8 categories. I got 4 categories (Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor) completely correct and overall,out of 45 possible nominations, I predicted 37 correctly, or an 82%accuracy rate.

Interesting notes: Lee Daniels becomes the first openly gay and second African American nominated for Best Director, in the same year the 4th woman is nominated (Kathryn Bigelow, who will most likely win!)

Diane Kruger and Julianne Moore were robbed!

The fact that The Hurt Locker was able to tie Avatar for total nominations at 9 is huge, because roughly 100 times more people have seen the latter.

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus An Education
Precious
Star TrekThe Blind Side
The HangoverA Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Accuracy Rate: 7 out of 10.

Best Director

• Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
• James Cameron, Avatar
• Lee Daniels, Precious
• Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
• Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Accuracy Rate: 5 out of 5

Best Actress

• Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren, The Last Station
• Casey Mulligan, An Education
  
• Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
• Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Accuracy Rate: 5 out of 5

Best Actor

• Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
• George Clooney, Up in the Air
• Colin Firth, A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman, Invictus
• Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Accuracy Rate: 5 out of 5

Best Supporting Actress

• Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
• Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
• Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds Penelope Cruz, Nine
  
• Mo'Nique, Precious
• Julianne Moore, A Single Man Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Accuracy Rate: 3 out of 5

Best Supporting Actor

• Matt Damon, Invictus
• Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
• Christophe Walz, Inglourious Basterds

Accuracy Rate: 5 out of 5

Best Original Screenplay

• Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
• James Cameron, Avatar Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger
• Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
• Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
• Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of SummerBob Peterson and Pete Docter, Up

Accuracy Rate: 3 out of 5

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
• Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia Jesse Armstrong and Simon Blackwell, In the Loop
• Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
• Nick Hornby, An Education
• Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Accuracy Rate: 4 out of 5

AUSSIE OPEN 2010: Men's Semifinals Preview

I predicted the results of 3 of the 4 the men's quarterfinals correctly but only 1 of 4 of the women's quarterfinals correctly. I have already written my women's semifinals preview. Here is my preview of the men's semfinals in the 2010 Australian Open:

Roger Federer SUI (1) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (10). For the twenty-third consecutive time, Roger Federer is in a major grand slam semifinal. Let me say that again. 23 times in a row. That is nearly 6 years of every slam. The next closest total is Ivan Lendl with 10. Federer has also been in the last 17 of 18 major finals (winning 11); his only slip-up was two years ago here in Melbourne, to Novak Djokovic, who ended up winning the tournament against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the 2008 final. Tsonga got his revenge last night by beating the Serbian , a result which I welcome but did not expect or predict. "Jo-Willie" really seems to enjoy the big lights and enthusiastic crowd down in Australia and they bring out the best tennis in the charismatic, hard-hitting Frenchman. Just to get to this point, Tsonga has had to win two tough 5-set matches (his first ever!), most particularly the 4th Round thriller against Nicolas Almagro where he had to recover from "being two sets to none up" (as Mary Carillo quipped earlier this week) and ended up winning the match 6-3 6-4 4-6 6-7(6) 9-7. Against Djokovic, the Frenchman played two very close sets and only ended up winning one of them and then went "on walkabout" during the third set before Djokovic's physical ailments seem to weigh down the Serb's game more and more until it finally collapsed completely in a 7-6(8) 6-7(5) 1-6 6-3 6-1 loss.

The match-up between Federer and Tsonga is an interesting (and exciting) one. They have only played twice (in the last two years), both times on hard courts and the score is tied 1-1. I well remember their meeting at the ATP Masters Series during the Montreal massacre last year because Tsonga lost 10 games in a row and was down 5-1 in the third set before coming back to win in a decisive tie-breaker. Federer showed with his tight 2-6 6-3 6-0 7-5 dismissal of a more energized Nikolay Davydenko for the 13th time in 15 matches that he does not like to lose to the same person in consecutive matches. I personally will be happy with whomever wins this match, there's no one left in the tournament that would annoy me if they claimed the title.
MadProfessah's pick: Federer in 4 sets OR Tsonga in 5 sets.


Marin Cilic CRO (14) vs. Andy Murray GBR (5).This is Andy Murray's year. Unless it's not. On paper, the Scotsman sports head-to-head advantages over all of the remaining semifinalists (6-4 against Federer, 2-1 against Tsonga and 3-1 against his semifinal opponent, Marin Cilic) and should be the favorite for the 2010 Australian Open men's title. He was in the process of imposing his will on the defending champion Rafael Nadal before the Spaniard said ¡No Más! trailing 6-3 7-6(2) 3-0. Murray is yet to drop a set in the tournament, the only player on either side of the draw to do so. Cilic on the other hand last beat Murray the last time they played, in New York, handily 7-5 6-2 6-2. However, here in Melbourne Cilic has played three 5 set matches and a 4-set match to reach his first major semifinal, but the quality of his opponents has been substantially higher than Murray's: 2009 defending US Open champion Juan Martín del Potro, 2009 Wimbledon finalist Andy Roddick and the always wily Fabrice Santoro in the first round. That being said, I think that Murray has both the game and the will to win this match and one more. MadProfessah's pick: Murray in 4 sets.

AUSSIE OPEN 2010: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year, which is one of the strongest fields in recent memory, with 6 of the top8 seeds making it to the final eight.

Roger Federer SUI (1) vs. Nikolay Davydenko RUS (6). Haven't we seen this movie before? Roger Federer, the Greatest Of All Time, playing late in a major tournament against the Kolya The Obsure Russian. Yes, we have, but since the last major was played Davydenko has won not one but two tournaments where he beat both Rafael Nadal and Federer. That still gives him the uninspiring record of 2 wins 12 losses against Federer, including 0-4 in majors. In fact, in 2006 Davydenko lost in this very same round to Federer in four relatively tight sets. Of course neither player is the same player they were four years ago. One would really have to say that it is Davydenko who has improved more in that time, than Federer. I suspect this match will be closer than most people expect, but that Federer will pull through bringing his already incredible streak of 22 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals to a ridiculous 23. PREDICTION: Federer in 5 sets.

Novak Djokovic SRB (3) vs Robin Soderling SWE (8) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (10). You know things are good when a reprise of the 2008 men's final is not even the best match-up of this round. It's interesting that Soderling was seeded to have this position, because I always expected Tsonga to be right here from the beginning of the tournament. Unfortunately for him, I don't think the result will be any different from the last time the charismatic Frenchman played the talented Serb on the big stage in Melbourne. Djokovic is playing devastating tennis and is anxious to remain in the conversation when talk turns to the Nadal-Federer monopoly on major titles. Unless Tsonga is playing the tennis that had him dismiss Nadal in that magical semifinal in 2008, he will probably not even win a set. Then again one never knows what could happen because last year the defending champion bizarrely threw in the towel against Andy Roddick at this stage of the tournament and I am pretty sure he is eager to erase memories of that result from the tennis-watching public's mind. PREDICTION: Djokovic in 4 sets.


Andy Roddick USA (7) vs. Juan Martin Del Potro ARG (4). Marin Cilic CRO (14). I really never expected to see Juan Martín del Potro make it this far in the tournament and he never really looked very comfortable in any of his matches in Melbourne this year. Cilic was impressive in maintaining his composure as he blew breakpoint after breakpoint against the reigning US Open champion. A lot of people (including myself) have favorably re-assessed the play of Andy Roddick after the incredible competitive spirit he showed in the best match of last year, the 2009 Wimbledon men's final. However, Marin Cilic is undefeated in 2010 and he is absolutely not satisfied with only being a quarterfinalist. I'm sure he truly believes that if Juan Martin can win a major (over Federer no less!) than he can as well. If so, he'll have to get through at least three more good players to get there, as well as have some good luck. PREDICTION: Cilic in 5 sets.

Andy Murray GBR (5) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). This is the match-up of the tournament (so far). The one player who is playing even sharper tennis than Djokovic is Andy Murray, who hears the clamor of "best player not to have won a major" getting louder and louder every single day. Although Nadal sports a 7-2 career head-to-head lead, Murray's two wins have occurred on hard courts, although Nadal did beat Murray in a 5-set match in Melbourne in 2007. However, the Andy Murray of today is not the same player Nadal dispatched then. Also, Nadal has not really been that impressive in getting this far in the tournament, although maybe that is because he has not been seriously tested. That will end in this match. Either way, the defending champion will not go out without a tremendous fight. This should be a great one. PREDICTION: Murray in 5 sets.

AUSSIE OPEN 2010: Women's Top 10 Preview

Here are Mad Professah's predictions for the Top 10 women's seeds at the 2010 Australian Open:

1. Serena Williams, United States. The past, current and future World #1 has won this tournament four times (2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009) but I do not think she will not win this year because she has not defended a grand slam title since 2003 (Wimbledon) and also has not won two consecutive slams since that year. Her movement was clearly affected negatively by a left knee injury in the finals of the Sydney tournament against Elena Dementieva and if she is not 100% she will not even get as far into the draw as I suspect. If she does make it to the second week, I will probably revise my pre-tournament prediction, but at this moment I would not consider her the favorite in Melbourne. Quarterfinalist.
2. Dinara Safina, Russia. Last year's finalist has a permanent brain injury which seems to afflict several of the top Russian players (c.f. Svetlana Kuznetsova, Vera Zvonareva) but can be overcome (c.f. Maria Sharapova, Elena Dementieva, Svetlana Kuznetsova). Safina is somehow the #2 player in the world but if she lasts in a round higher than her seeding, mouths will be agape worldwide. Early Round Loss.
3. Svetlana Kuznetsova, Russia. The 2009 French Open Champion clearly has the game to win the title but many of the Russians seem to wilt in the heat of the Australian summer and Kuznetsova is no exception, she has never been past the quarterfinals, last year losing in that round to eventual champion Serena Williams. This year she is in the killer quarter of the draw with Justine Henin, Kim Clijsters and Elena Dementieva. Sveta will have a blockbuster 4th round match-up which she is unlikely to come away the victor. Fourth Round.
4. Caroline Wozniacki, Denmark. The teenaged 2009 U.S. Open finalist is new to the absolute top echelon of women's tennis but I believe she will remain there for quite a long time. She has a pretty good chance of getting deep in the draw this year, but I think she is unlikely to get past the top player in the bottom half of the draw. Quarterfinalist.
5. Elena Dementieva, Russia. Oh, Elena! After playing the best women's match of 2009 I truly believe that 2010 should be Elena's breakthrough year. Long recognized as having the best groundstrokes and movement of any of the Russian stars, Dementieva has been to two major finals where she was let down by her embarassment of a serve. Happily, those days are (mostly) behind her and the number of opportunities that she will have to get into the record books as a Grand Slam champion are rapidly disappearing. Although she does not have a tremendously amenable draw (she will need to get through Henin, Yanina Wickmayer, Kim Clijsters and Maria Sharapova just to make the final) if she does make it through to the championship match, this time she will not falter, regardless of who her opponent is. Champion.
6. Venus Williams, United States. I will freely admit that this prediction is influenced by my love for the older Williams sister but I also think Venus has a good chance to get to the final. Of course, it is just as likely that Venus could lose in the first round against the fearless, hard-hitting Lucie Safarova. However, assuming she deals with that initial challenge, she will only need to get past people she can overpower like Sybille Bammer, Karolina Sprem and Aggie Radwanska before she meets hard-hitters like Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka. Finalist.
7. Victoria Azarenka, Belarus. The "next Maria Sharapova" was up a set and a break against eventual champion Serena Williams last year before the ice princess melted in the scorching Australia sun and had to be helped off the court with heat exhaustion. Azarenka is in a section of the draw where she should finally be able to be able to do some definite damage, but there are some other potentially fragile players (mentally: Zvonareva and Ivanovic) and (physically: Serena) year who are standing in her way. Semifinalist.
8. Jelena Jankovic, Serbia. The former World #1 player has not had much success at the Grand Slam level lately, but she has a dream draw and I'm sure she is still hungry to make some noise at a major. She and 2008 Australian Open Champion Maria Sharapova are on a collision for the quarterfinal berth. Frankly I would not be surprised to see the It Girl take it, but I think the Serb will be hungrier.
9. Vera Zvonareva, Russia. Last year's semifinalist has the game to power through several rounds, but only when she gets confident and puts together a winning streak, and that's not where she is right now. Early Round Loss.
10. Agnieszka Radwanska, Poland. Widely regarded as "Martina Hingis, version 2.0" Radwanska often finds her way deep into a major, but she simply lacks a single fear-inspiring weapon, thus fatally limiting her chances to advance to a round that would match or exceed her seeding in most majors. Fourth Round.

I know I am going out on a limb with these predictions, but that's half the fun. For Craig Hickman's, see here. Most other tennis watchers like Jon Wertheim think that Serena will be able to pull off a title defense, and that would delight me and my friends who flew down to Melbourne to see this year's matches, to know end.

We'll know soon. Game on!

WIMBLEDON 2009: Women's Final Prediction

Venus Williams USA (3) v. Serena Williams USA (2).

The 2009 Wimbledon Women's Final is set, and for the fourth time this decade, it will feature Venus and Serena Williams playing each other. Venus will be appearing in the final for the eighth time, having won 5-times (losing twice to Serena in 2002 and 2003) including the last two years in 2007 and 2008.

So far I have correctly predicted the last 6 matches of the Women's draw with only the final remaining. In my bracket selection at the beginning of the tournament I picked Serena to defeat Venus, primarily because the younger sister is currently the defending champion at two of the four majors and has 10 majors overall to Venus' 7 major titles.

However, after seeing each of their matches, including Serena's instant classic semifinal 6-7(4) 7-5 8-6 win against Elena Dementieva on Thursday, I now think that Venus will be able to win her 6th Wimbledon title by defeating her sister for the second consecutive year. Although it is hard to compare how well they played in their respective semifinals since Venus' opponent Dinara Safina didn't give her an opportunity to show how well the 5-time champion's game shines on grass in her 6-1 6-0 demolition of the World #1.

MadProfessah's pick: Venus Williams in 3 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2009: Ladies' Quarterfinals

The Wimbledon quarterfinals are being played Tuesday (women) and Wednesday (men).

Dinara Safina RUS (1) versus Sabine Lisicki GER

Venus Williams USA (3) versus Agnieszka Radwanska POL (11)

Francesca Schiavone ITA versus Elena Dementieva RUS (4)

Victoria Azarenka BLR (8) versus Serena Williams USA (2)

I predict that the winners will be Safina (in 3 sets), Venus Williams (in 2 sets), Dementieva (in 2 sets) and Serena Williams (in 3 sets).