ATP Tour Finals 2010: Federer Defeats Nadal 6-3 3-6 6-1

As predicted, Roger Federer of Switzerland won his 5th ATP Tour Final championships on Sunday in London  by defeating World #1 Rafael Nadal of Spain 6-3 3-6 6-1 in 97 minutes. Federer joined Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras as the third man to win the tour-ending championship for the 5th time, which he had previously won in 2003 (d. Andre Agassi), 2004 (d. Lleyton Hewitt), 2006 (d. James Blake), and 2007 (d. David Ferrer). Interestingly, it was also the 4th time he won the Australian Open (the first tournament of the year) and the season-ending championship in the same year (2004, 2006, 2007 and 2010). (Novak Djokovic was able to achieve the same feat in 2008.)

Federer improved to a career record of 8 wins, 14 losses against his arch nemesis (with the clay court record of 2 wins and 10 losses), who is now regularly being called the greatest clay court player of all time. Federer won his 66th ATP tour title, placing him firmly in fourth position on the all-time list, a mere 11 titles behind John McEnroe at 77, Lendl at 94 and Jimmy Connors at 107.

Nadal is firmly ensconced at #1 and basically has no ranking points to defend until the clay court season. The earliest Federer could challenge for the #1 ranking again is probably Wimbledon 2011. It should be an exciting year!

Federer Wins 64th Tour Title; Tied With Sampras At 4th Most All-Time

Roger Federer won the 2010 Stockholm Open over Florian Mayer 6-4 6-3 to tie Pete Sampras for 4th on the all-time list of ATP tour titles won at 64. Jimmy Connors leads with 107, followed by Ivan Lendl at 94 and John McEnroe at 77.

Federer's career record is now 64 wins and 28 losses in finals, which is significantly better than his 2010 record in finals which is 3-4 (losses to Rafael Nadal in the Madrid Masters on clay, to Andy Murray in the Toronto and Shanghai Masters on hard courts and to Lleyton Hewitt in Halle, on grass).

Federer is now 29 years old but has promised to play through thw 2012 Olympics in London, which will be held on grass. He won the Gold medal in doubles but Nadal won the Gold in singles in Beijing in 2008.

I predict Federer will surpass McEnroe's total by the time he retires  but Lendl's total is safe. Another record Federer would dearly like to have, is the most weeks at #1, where he is exactly one week behind Sampras' record of 286.

Rafa Secures Year End World #1 Ranking

On  the strength of his winning three Grand Slam titles in a row in 2010, Rafael Nadal has clinched the year-end World #1 ranking.

ATP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONS (since 1973)
Year Player2010 Rafael Nadal (Spain) 
2009 Roger Federer (Switzerland) 
2008 Rafael Nadal (Spain) 
2007 Roger Federer (Switzerland)
2006 Roger Federer (Switzerland) 
2005 Roger Federer (Switzerland) 
2004 Roger Federer (Switzerland) 
2003 Andy Roddick (U.S.)
2002 Lleyton Hewitt (Australia) 
2001 Lleyton Hewitt (Australia) 
2000 Gustavo Kuerten (Brazil)
1999 Andre Agassi (U.S.)
1998  Pete Sampras (U.S.)
1997 Pete Sampras (U.S.)
1996 Pete Sampras (U.S.)
1995 Pete Sampras (U.S.)
1994 Pete Sampras (U.S.)
1993 Pete Sampras (U.S.)
1992 Jim Courier (U.S.)
1991 Stefan Edberg (Sweden)
1990 Stefan Edberg (Sweden)
1989 Ivan Lendl (Czech Republic)
1988 Mats Wilander (Sweden)
1987 Ivan Lendl (Czech Republic)
1986 Ivan Lendl (Czech Republic)
1985 Ivan Lendl (Czech Republic)
1984 John McEnroe (U.S.)
1983 John McEnroe (U.S.)
1982 John McEnroe (U.S.)
1981 John McEnroe (U.S.)
1980 Bjorn Borg (Sweden)
1979 Bjorn Borg (Sweden)
1978 Jimmy Connors (U.S.)
1977 Jimmy Connors (U.S.)
1976 Jimmy Connors (U.S.)
1975 Jimmy Connors (U.S.)
1974 Jimmy Connors (U.S.)
1973 Ilie Nastase (Romania)  

MULTIPLE ATP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONS
Player (No.)
Pete Sampras 6
Jimmy Connors 5
Roger Federer 5
Ivan Lendl 4
John McEnroe 4
Bjorn Borg 2
Stefan Edberg 2
Lleyton Hewitt 2
Rafael Nadal 2

Federer Defends Cincy Title Over Fish

Roger Federer won his first non-major final of the year after losing 3 finals in a row (on 3 different surfaces: Madrid to Rafael Nadal, Halle to Lleyton Hewitt and Toronto to Andy Murray) in Cincinnati on Sunday over American Mardy Fish. The title was his 53rd overall, tying Bjorn Borg on the all-time list at 5th. It was Federer's 17th ATP Masters series title, tying Andre Agassi but still one behind Nadal's 18.

Federer has now won the Cincinnati title in 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. Next year it will become a combined male-female 8-day event (immediately following simultaneous men's and women's tournaments in Toronto and Montreal).

The match with Fish was a close, high-quality 3-set affair featuring 2 tiebreaks, one break of serve and only 6 breakpoints between the two players. The final score was 6-7(5) 7-6(1) 6-4. In the first set, Federer had 4 breakpoints and failed to convert any of them due to brilliant serving by Fish. Federer faced one breakpoint in the second set but was able to get through to a tiebreak. In the first set tiebreaker Federer held a 5-4 lead, but Fish played a brilliant point to even the breaker at 5-all and Federer played a loose point to be down 6-5. Fish won the first set on a service winner. In the second set tiebreaker Federer was much sharper, jumping to a quick 4-1 lead and never looked in danger of losing that breaker. The only break in the match came in the 9th game of the third set where, for once, after facing a break point Fish was unable to make a first serve and eventually lost the breakpoint and the game, and eventually the match when Federer served it out pretty easily on his second match point.

WIMBLEDON 2010: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2010.

(By the time you read this I will be in the air from LAX to London Heathrow on my way to Wimbledon. Depending on the vagaries (and expenses) of internet access, I may or may not have semifinals predictions for the men's and women's draws tomorrow.)

Roger Federer SUI (1) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (12). The 6-time champion had started off his quest for a record 7th title weakly but in his last two matches his game has looked strong. Berdych is a very talented, huge serving, huge hitting 6'5" Czech player who has already beaten Federer once this year (even though he needed 5 match points to do it). He is a very similar player to Robin Soderling who beat Federer at this same stage of the tournament at the French Open a month ago, although possibly Berdych is not as good a mover as Soderling (which he demonstrated by beating Berdych in Paris). Before beating Federer earlier this year in Miami, Berdych had lost 8 straight times to Federer, including once at the 2006 Wimbledon. The Mighty Fed will find a way to win. PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

Andy Roddick USA (5) Yen-Hsun Lu TPE vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This is Novak Djokovic's dream draw and Andy Roddick's nightmare. Roddick lost to the unseeded player from Taipei despite losing his serve only once, a repeat of what happened in his loss last year in the thrilling final against Federer. This time, however, Roddick was much less aggressive at attacking his opponent's serve and mentally was only able to hold his serve until the 16th game of the 5th set, not the thirtieth game like last year, nowhere near the amazing 138th game that Nicolas Mahut was able to do in his jaw-dropping performance against John Isner. Some wags were flogging Lleyton Hewitt's chances of penetrating deep into the draw, since the Aussie had finally ended his 16-match drought against Federer last week by winning the grass court title in Halle. I was not one of them. Djokovic is the #3 best player in the world, and made sure that Hewitt knew it. By the end of this match, Lu will know it as well. PREDICTION: Djokovic in 3 sets.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (10) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). This match should be the highlight of the 2010 Men's Quarterfinals. Tsonga and Murray have only played three times, with Murray leading 2-1. That one loss came at the 2008 Australian Open, where Tsonga made his breakthrough to his first major final, eventually losing to Djokovic. There's no question that Tsonga has the weapons to beat Murray. This match should come down to the intangibles, which for Murray at Wimbledon are always difficult to evaluate. Does the fact that the British crowd will be overwhelmingly in his favor help him over the hump to victory, or will their outsize expectations smother his chances? I think it is no coincidence that the two places that Murray has reached major finals (Melbourne 2010 and New York 2008) were in cities where he does not carry the weight of a nation on his shoulders. Last year, he was curiously flat against Andy Roddick in the Wimbledon semifinals. I had picked him to win that match last year but this time I think if the match gets "complicated" it will be the Frenchman who will come out on top. Murray is the only player in the draw not to drop a set and it's possible (but unlikely) that this will happen again. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets or Tsonga in 4 or 5 sets.

Robin Soderling SWE(6) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). This is a repeat of the 2010 Men's Final at Roland Garros where Nadal did not lose a set for the entire tournament. There's no question in my mind that the Spaniard is the greatest clay court player of all time. But this match-up is on grass, and of course, these two have a troubled history at Wimbledon. In 2007 the two played a much-delayed 5-set match over 5 days where Soderling made a fool of himself by mocking Nadal's quirks. He has since apologized. Up until his previous round's 5-set match against David Ferrer, Soderling had not dropped a single set in this tournament, the only top player (besides Murray) to have done so. Another problem for Nadal is that he has been troubled this tournament by two youthful, big servers in Robin Haase of the Netherlands and Philipp Petzschner of Germany. Soderling can not only serve regularly in the 130 mph range but he can back it up with power on both wings. But then again, if Ferrer gave Soderling that much trouble and his game is really a weak imitation of Nadal's then surely Nadal will give Soderling trouble as well. Out of the Top 4, I think Soderling (and Tsonga if he can stay healthy) are the most likely to break through to a major title in the near term. Here is where Sodelring will need to show if he can get through Nadal (and later, possibly Federer) to do it. I think he has a fairly decent chance of succeeding. PREDICTION: Soderling in 3 or 4 sets, Nadal in 5 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2010: Federer Seeded #1

The seedings for 2010 Wimbledon are out. In a small surprise the All-England Lawn Tennis Club chose World #2 Roger Federer as the #1 seed over World #1 Rafael Nadal. Of course, Federer is the defending champion and has won the tournament 6 times (and 16 majors overall), while Nadal has only won it once.

The men's seedings are:

1. Roger Federer (Switzerland)

2. Rafael Nadal (Spain)

3. Novak Djokovic (Serbia)

4. Andy Murray (Britain)

5. Andy Roddick (U.S.)

6. Robin Soderling (Sweden) 7. Nikolay Davydenko (Russia)

8. Fernando Verdasco (Spain)

9. David Ferrer (Spain)

10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France)

11. Marin Cilic (Croatia)

12. Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic)

13. Mikhail Youzhny (Russia)

14. Juan Carlos Ferrero (Spain)

15. Lleyton Hewitt (Australia)

16. Jurgen Melzer (Austria)

17. Ivan Ljubicic (Croatia)

18. Sam Querrey (U.S.)

19. Nicolas Almagro (Spain)

20. Stanislas Wawrinka (Switzerland)

21. Gael Monfils (France)

22. Radek Stepanek (Czech Republic)

23. Feliciano Lopez (Spain)

24. John Isner (U.S.)

25. Ivo Karlovic (Croatia)

26. Marcos Baghdatis (Cyprus)

27. Thomaz Bellucci (Brazil)

28. Gilles Simon (France)

29. Ernests Gulbis (Latvia)

30. Albert Montanes (Spain)

31. Philipp Kohlschreiber (Germany)

32. Tommy Robredo (Spain)

Federer Loses 2nd Grass Court Match in 7 Years!

Roger Federer lost his 2nd grass court match in 7 years in the final of Halle to Lleyton Hewitt 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4, the first time in 16 consecutive matches the former Australian #1 had not lost to the 16-time major champion. Federer's only other loss on grass had come at the hands of Rafael Nadal in the epic 2008 Wimbledon final, which many observers call the greatest tennis match ever played.

Federer had a 29-match win streak on grass at Halle dating back to 2002, and after losing to Robin Soderling in the French Open quarterfinals this year and failing to defend that title he faces defending his Wimbledon title for the first time with a loss in a grass court warm-up tournament. Federer is going for his record-tying 7th Wimbledon title, this times as World #2, behind Nadal.

As Federer approaches the end of his storied career the shock defeats will become more frequent and the major wins will become less frequent. However, with 16 Grand Slam singles title, 2 more than the previous record, he is playing for the record books, and I expect him to win at least two more, ending his caeer with 18 or 19 after the 2012 London Olympics.

WIMBLEDON 2009: Men's Quarterfinals

6'10" Ivo Karlovic of Croatia

After going four out of four with my predictions for the Wimbledon women's quarterfinals, I will try my hand at predicting Wednesday's Men's Quarterfinals

Lleyton Hewitt AUS v Andy Roddick USA (6)

Andy Murray GBR (3) v Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP

Tommy Haas GER (24) v Novak Djokovic SRB (4)

Ivo Karlovic CRO (22) v Roger Federer SUI (2)

I believe the winners will be Roddick (in 4 sets), Murray (in 3 sets), Djokovic (in 5 sets) and Federer (in 4 sets).