POLL: 1/3 Of Americans Deny Gays' Equal Relationship Rights

Interesting poll results from PPP for DailyKos.com on legal recognition of same-sex relationships:

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 1/14-16. Registered voters. MoE 3.1% (No trend lines)

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.

         Marry  Civil unions  Neither
All         34       31         33

Dem         53       24         20
Rep         11       35         52
Ind         37       34         27

Lib         78       10         12
Mod         40       38         20
Con          8       32         57

Tea Party   17       30         52
Non-TP      42       30         27

White       33       30         35
Black       32       30         30
Latino      47       32         22

18-29       52       13         33
30-45       37       31         29
46-65       31       36         31
65+         23       34         42

Notice that nearly two-thirds of respondents either support full marriage equality or civil unions for same-sex couples. A majority of Democrats support marriage equality while a functionally equal majority of Republicans support no legal recognition for a gay couple's relationship. This is limited government?

Markos says that PPP will be polling on marriage equality every four weeks in 2011, which should provide some interesting longitudinal data on attitudes of Americans on the question of how same-sex couples should be recognized under the law.

Australia: A Female, Atheist Prime Minister & Marriage Equality Majority

The current Prime Minister of Australia is Julia Gillard. She is 49-years-old, unmarried and a confirmed atheist. She became Prime Minister when she became the leader of her party after the previous head (then current Prime Minister Kevin Rudd) lost the confidence of the Labour party.

Surprisingly, she is opposed to marriage equality for same-sex couples, even though a vast majority of Australians now support equal marriage rights for same-sex couples.

78% of Australians believe there should be a conscience vote on allowing same-sex couples to marry, according to a national opinion poll released today.

The poll also found an increase in support for marriage equality with 62% of Australians supporting the reform, up from 60% last year.

[...] 

The Galaxy poll also showed that 80% of Australians aged between 18 and 24 support same-sex marriage and 72% of households with children aged under 18 were also in favour. 74% of Labor voters and 48% of Coalition voters support equality. 

Support for a conscience vote is uniformly high with 80% of Labor voters and 75% of Coalition voters supporting it.

Gallup Poll Reveals Vast Majority of Americans Are Idiots

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, 

with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected 

using random-digit-dial sampling.For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence

 that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

A new Gallup poll reveals again that the vast majority of Americans believe in God, and also believe that a "deity" had either full or partial responsibility for creating humans. A plurality of Americans (40%) believe "God created humans pretty much in their present form approximately 10,000 years ago" (strict Creationism) while a smaller percentage (38%) believe that "God guided a process by which humans developed over millions of years from less advanced life forms" (intelligent design-lite) while a mere 16% believe that "humans developed over millions of years, without God's involvement" (science). Happily, this last number is the largest it has ever been, but it is still a disappointing result, since it reflects undisputed scientific fact.

Unsurprisingly, there is a partisan differential between Democrats, Republicans and Independents over who believes what:

Clearly a majority of Republicans (52%) believe that humans are less than 10,000 years with a minuscule 8% believing in God-less evolution, while Democrats and Independents are virtually indistinguishable between 40% believing in God-guided evolution and approximately 20% aligning with the vast body of scientific knowledge on the topic.

And, that, ladies and gentlemen, is why we have the 112th Congress with a Republican House majority!

Gallup Poll Shows Overwhelming Support For DADT Repeal

Saturday Politics: Field Poll Says Newsom Leads; Harris Tied With Cooley

The latest Field Poll shows that in the Lieutenant Governor race Gavin Newsom is leading Abel Maldonado 42-37 while Los Angeles District Attorney Steve Cooley and San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris are basically tied 39-38 for California Attorney General.

I'm pretty sure Gavin will win the LG race but I'm worried about the AG race. The internal details from Field are below:

Cooley and Harris are obtaining broad support of rank-and-file voters within their own respective parties. Among Republicans, Cooley is preferred 71% to 6%, while Democrats are supporting Harris 68% to 13%. Non-partisans and those registered with minor parties, who represent 17% of likely voters, are narrowly backing Harris by a 34% to 32% margin.

Cooley is maintaining large preference leads among voters in the traditionally Republican-leaning regions of Southern California outside of Los Angeles County (47% to 28%) and the Central Valley (44% to 30%). In his home county of Los Angeles, Cooley narrowly trails Harris 43% to 37%. Harris is preferred by a nearly two-to-one margin (52% to 27%) in the San Francisco Bay region where she lives. She also leads in less populated areas of Northern California outside the Bay Area (45% to 23%).

There is also a big coastal county-inland county divide in voter preferences in the A-G race. Cooley leads by eighteen points (46% to 28%) among voters in the state’s less populous inland counties, while Harris is preferred by six points (42% to 36%) among voters living in counties bordering the Pacific Ocean or San Francisco Bay.
Women are backing Harris by eleven points, 43% to 32%. Men are supporting Cooley by twelve points (45% to 33%).

Voters age 65 or older are backing Cooley by five points (44% to 39%). He leads among voters age 40–49 (39% to 34%). Harris is leading Cooley by four points (40% to 36%) among voters 50–64. Voters under age 40 are about evenly divided in their preferences.
White non-Hispanics favor Cooley by eight points (43% to 35%). Harris is preferred by large margins among Latinos and African-Americans. Each of the three Asian-American voter segments examined by the poll were dividing their preferences fairly evenly between the candidates, although large proportions remained undecided.

Cooley is preferred by two points (40% to 38%) among the 55% of voters who either already have voted by mail or intend to do so in the coming days. Among the 21% of voters who have already voted Cooley’s lead is even wider – 46% to 38%. Voters intending to vote at their local precinct on Election Day are evenly divided, 37% for Cooley and 37% for Harris.

POLL: Majority Of Americans Think Religions Contribute To LGBT Suicide

A new poll by the Public Religion Research Institute confirms the a vast majority of Americans believe what LGBT people know instinctively, that religious messages contribute to suicide rates among gay and lesbian youth.

A plurality (43%) of Americans say the messages coming from places of worship are negative, and 4-in-10 Americans believe that these messages contribute “a lot” to negative perceptions of gay and lesbian people. One-third (33%) of the public also believe that messages from religious bodies are contributing “a lot” to higher rates of suicide among gay and lesbian youth, and another third (32%) say these message contribute “a little;” only 21% say they do not contribute at all.

[...].

The survey also found significant generational and partisan gaps on perceptions of the impact of messages about homosexuality from America’s places of worship. Nearly half (47%) of young adults (age 18 to 34) say that messages from places of worship are contributing “a lot” to negative views of gay and lesbian people. Among Americans age 65 and older, less than one-third (30%) say religious bodies are contributing a lot to negative perceptions of gay and lesbian people. Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans (42% to 17%) to say places of worship are contributing to higher rates of suicide among gay youth.

Gigantic Pew Poll Confirms Public Opinion Shift Towards Marriage Equality

More good news on the polling front for supporters of marriage equality. A new Pew Research poll of nearly 6,000(!) Americans again reveals the extent of the rapidity of the shift in public opinion towards marriage equality.

There are several points to highlight from these results, but the  main ones are:

For the first time in 15 years of Pew Research Center polling, fewer than half oppose same-sex marriage.

[..] 

There are substantial age and generational differences in opinions about same-sex marriage. Millennials, born after 1980, favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally by a 53%-to-39% margin. Support for gay marriage among Millennials has changed little in recent years, but is up from 2004 when opinion was more divided.

Among Gen Xers (born 1965 to 1980), 48% now favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally while 43% are opposed. Support is up from 2009 when 41% favored this and 50% were opposed, but is on par with levels in 2001.

There is less support for same-sex marriage among Baby Boomers -- those born 1946 to 1964 -- than among younger age groups. Currently, 38% favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally while 52% are opposed. Still, support among Baby Boomers has increased over the past year (from 32%).

The Silent Generation (born 1928 to 1945) continues to oppose same-sex marriage; just 29% favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally while 59% are opposed. Even among the Silent Generation, however, there is somewhat more support than in 2009 (23% favor) and substantially greater support than in 2003, when just 17% backed gay marriage.

[...]

Whites are now evenly divided over gay marriage; in polls conducted this year, 44% of non-Hispanic whites favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally and 46% are opposed. In three surveys between August 2008 and August 2009, 39% of non-Hispanic whites favored same-sex marriage compared with 52% who were opposed.

By contrast, blacks continue to oppose same-sex marriage by a wide margin. In 2010, just 30% of non-Hispanic blacks favor gay marriage while 59% are opposed. From 2008 to 2009, 28% of blacks favored same-sex marriage and 62% were opposed.

The sub group breakdowns are summarized in the following table.

Simpsons laugh: Ha-ha! The heterosexual supremacists must be shaking in their boots.

CA-SEN: Boxer Maintains Measurable Edge

United States Senator Barbara Boxer is maintaining a distinct lead in her re-election race against former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.


The Saramento Bee explains why Boxer is currently favored to win her fourth Senate term:

The poll found that impressions of Boxer are sharply divided and highly partisan, with 93 percent of all likely voters having an opinion of her. It found that Boxer still has a high unfavorable rating of 48 percent. But it has declined from a high of 52 percent two months ago.

"She's hanging in," said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director. "It looks like she's had a pretty good month or two."

DiCamillo attributed the results to Boxer's television advertising, which began last week, while Fiorina unveiled her first television ad on Thursday. DiCamillo noted that Fiorina's unfavorable rating has jumped from 29 percent to 38 percent since July.

"Fiorina has definitely taken a hit," he said.

[...]

The poll found that most respondents are basing their choices on how they feel about Boxer. Among Boxer supporters, 67 percent said their vote is more a vote for Boxer than it is a vote against Fiorina. And 65 percent of those who supported Fiorina said their preference is more a vote against Boxer than it is a vote for Fiorina.

MadProfessah has endorsed Barbara Boxer.

AP Poll: Majority of Americans Support Marriage Equality

A new nationwide poll from Associated Press of 1000+ individuals (pdf) is yet another poll to confirm Maggie Gallagher's worst nightmare: "A majority of Americans support marriage equality."

The headline is that in response to the question "Should the Federal Government give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex, or not?" 52 percent say yes, 46 percent say no.

This is now the second poll in as many months which indicate majority support for marriage equality. Last month, the CNN poll similarly showed majority support for marriage equality (again 52 percent yes, 42 percent no) when the question was "Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?"

It should also be noted that as recently as May 2010, Gallup showed that there was majority opposition to marriage equality nationwide (44% yes 53% no) in response to the question "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?"

538 Claims Marriage Equality Support Accelerating

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has analyzed the polling on public support for marriage equality and notes that there appears to be an acceleration in the rate at which support for legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples is increasing.

Something to bear in mind is that it's only been fairly recently that gay rights groups -- and other liberals and libertarians -- shifted toward a strategy of explicitly calling for full equity in marriage rights, rather than finding civil unions to be an acceptable compromise. While there is not necessarily zero risk of backlash resulting from things like court decisions -- support for gay marriage slid backward by a couple of points, albeit temporarily, after a Massachusetts' court's ruling in 2003 that same-sex marriage was required by that state's constitution -- it seems that, in general, "having the debate" is helpful to the gay marriage cause, probably because the secular justifications against it are generally quite weak.

In mathematical terms we we would say that the second derivative (the rate of the rate of increase) is positive, but you can just notice that there is an uptick in the blue graph at the end.

But no matter how you analyze it, it shows that the National Organization for Marriage will be out of business soon. Hurray!

CNN Poll Shows National Majority Supports Marriage Equality

A spanking new CNN poll (released today) shows that a majority of Americans support marriage equality. However, as one can see from the excerpt above, there are slight variations in this "majority" support depending on how the question is asked.

The first question asks "Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?" while the second question asks "Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?" Notice the support is higher in the second question. It's easier to say yes to something that SHOULD be true, as opposed to the first question which is asking for the respondent's evaluation of current law.

Note this interesting little nugget:

The gap widens dramatically when age is taken into account. Nearly six in ten Americans under the age of 50 say gay rights are protected under the Constitution. Only 38 percent of Americans over the age of 50 say the same thing.

"This is one of the few instances when independents side with one party rather than falling in between the Dems and the GOP," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "56 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Independents think the Constitution conveys the right to marry to same-sex couples. Only a quarter of all Republicans agree."

It should also be noted that the support for marriage equality (among the larger sample) is not above the margin of error of the poll.

Oh, and in other horrifying political opinion news, 49% of Americans think that birthright citizenship guaranteed by the 14th Amendment should be repealed (51% oppose it). Oy vey!

POLL: 29% to 22% Think Prop 8 Was Bad For State

There's a new poll out from the Public Religion Research Institute that confirms that a majority of Californians support marriage equality right now. Additionally, the poll of 3,351 adults (including 350 African Americans and 200 Latino Protestants) asked about the 2008 ballot initiative Proposition 8. A stunning 45% of respondents said that it had no impact on the sate, while 29% said the measure's passage was bad for the state while 22% said it was good for the state.

Some other key findings of the report:

• One-in-four Californians report that their views on rights for gay and lesbian people has become more supportive over the last five years, compared to only 8% who say they have become more opposed. Among religious groups, ethnic minority groups showed slightly more overall movement than white religious groups. Among black Protestants, twice as many report becoming more supportive as report becoming more opposed (27% vs. 13%); among Latino Catholics, that ratio is 3-to-1 (31% more supportive vs. 9% more opposed) over this period.

• If another vote similar to Proposition 8 were held tomorrow, a majority (51%) say they would vote to allow gay and lesbian couples to marry, compared to 45% who say they would vote to keep same-sex marriage illegal.

• There are major religious groups on both sides of the debate over same-sex marriage in California. Solid majorities of Latino Catholics and white mainline Protestants say they would vote to allow gay and lesbian couples to marry, while solid majorities of white evangelical Protestants, Latino Protestants, and African American Protestants say they would vote to keep same-sex marriage illegal.

The PPRI poll joins other major polls which also show majority support for marriage equality in the state of California.

Field Poll Confirms Majority Support for Marriage Equality

New polling from the Field Poll confirms that a majority of Californians support marriage equality, 51% to 42%.

POLL: Support for AZ Immigration Law Hits 57%

A new CBS national poll indicates that support for the arguably racist Arizona immigration law has hit 57%.

Support for the measure increased five points since May. Since then, the Justice Department has filed suit against the law, claiming that it usurps federal authority to enforce immigration laws.

The measure in question, signed into law in April and slated to go into effect later this month, makes it a state crime for a person to be in the country illegally. It also requires local law enforcement to question a person about his or her immigration status during all "lawful stops" if there is "reasonable suspicion" that person may be in the country illegally.

Twenty-three percent of Americans think the law goes too far, according to the poll, conducted July 9 - 12. That's down five points from the 28 percent who said in May that the measure goes too far. Another 17 percent said it doesn't go far enough.

About half of Americans - 52 percent -- say states should be able to enact laws regarding illegal immigrants, while 42 percent think only the federal government should able to do so.

There is a sharp partisan divide on this question: most Democrats (58 percent) say laws covering illegal immigration should be the responsibility of the federal government only, while Republicans (64 percent) and independents (58 percent) think the states should be allowed to pass such laws.

Half of Americans think illegal immigrants take jobs that Americans don't want, while fewer - 42 percent -- say they take jobs away from Americans.

The CBS poll also indicates that public support for the health care reform legislation has dropped seven points since May 20th.

Interestingly, a poll of LGBT respondents show that they overwhelmingly oppose the Arizona law.

Saturday Politics: Ballot Measure Polling

National Support For Marriage Equality At 44%

Gallup has released a new poll which shows that opposition to marriage equality has fallen slightly, but is still a majority position in the United States, nationally.

These results are based on Gallup's Values and Beliefs Poll, which has tracked attitudes toward legal same-sex marriage annually since 2004. When Gallup first asked about the legality of gay marriage in a 1996 poll, 68% of Americans were opposed and 27% in favor.

Since that time, support has increased among the major political and ideological subgroups, though more among those on the left of the political spectrum than among those on the right. Currently, a majority of Democrats favor legal gay marriage, as do a majority of moderates and liberals, with liberals the most supportive of these groups, at 70%.

[...]

Over time, Americans have become more accepting of legal same-sex marriage, and a growing number of subgroups now show majority support for it. However, religious and conservative segments of the U.S. population remain largely opposed -- even though their support for gay marriage has also increased in recent years. Because religious and conservative groups are larger than nonreligious and left-leaning groups in the United States, overall, more Americans remain opposed to, rather than in favor of, same-sex marriage.

The rate of increase in support for marriage equality from 1996 to 2010 has not been uniform among sub-groups, of course. Moderate voters have had the largest increase in support (24 points, to 56%), with conservatives having the smallest (11 points, to 25%).


The poll was conducted May 3-6,2010 off 1,029 adults 18 years or older using random-digit dialing. It has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

DADT Repeal Language Revealed; Support at 78%

An update on the legislative compromise reached yesterday between the Obama administration and LGBT groups. The language of the amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act which would authorize the repeal of"Don't Ask, Don't Tell" but delay implementation until next year has been revealed.

dadtlanguage

CNN is reporting that nearly 8 out of 10 Americans support repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell and allowing openly gay and lesbian soldiers to serve in the military.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that 78 percent of the public supports allowing openly gay people to serve in the military, with one in five opposed.

"Support is widespread, even among Republicans. Nearly six in ten Republicans favor allowing openly gay individuals to serve in the military," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "There is a gender gap, with 85 percent of women and 71 percent of men favoring the change, but support remains high among both groups."

Hopefully this poll will give wavering members of the U.S. Senate Armed Forces the political cover they feel the need to vote to end this discriminatory policy. However, there are members of the LGBT community who are disappointed.

Richard Socarides, a former adviser on LGBT issues to President Clinton, released a statement, saying:

"I know we are all thrilled tonight that there may be a break in the logjam over DADT legislation. And it is always important to keep focused on the art of the possible. This has been a long fight and it is not over.

"I am concerned, however, that the bill released tonight is being mis-characterized. I was expecting to see a bill providing for repeal of DADT now with delayed implementation. As far as I can tell, the proposed legislation instead makes repeal conditional on a future discretionary certification which may or may not occur.

"It may be the best we can get, and if so, I say let's grab it. But it is not repeal with delayed implementation. It's conditional future repeal."

I agree. I think that any compromise should include a moratorium on kicking out and processing discharges until the Department of Defense report comes back on December 1, 2010.

Saturday Politics: CA-GOV, CA-SEN, AD-43, AD-47

It's Saturday, so it's time to talk politics again. This week's edition will discuss tightening polls in California's governor and senator races, homophobic developments in the 43rd Assembly District race, and an endorsement in the 47th District.

CA-GOV. Recent polling from PPIC has shown that Meg Whitman's once HUGE lead over Steve Poizner has diminished to single digits, 38 to 29, in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Research 2000 also shows Whitman with a lead, 46 to 36. Jerry Brown now has a lead over either of the Republican hopefuls, leading Whitman 42 to 37 and Poizner 45 to 32. The two Republicans have now spent a combined $82 million in their primary battle (billionaire Whitman $68m, Poizner $24m). The primary election is Tuesday June 8th, although voting by mail has been possible for the last two weeks.

CA-SEN. Incumbent senator Barbara Boxer has finally received some good polling news. Her job approval rating reached 50% (according to PPIC) and she leads all three potential Republican challengers: Carly Fiorina (48-39), Chuck Devore (50-39) and Tom Campbell (46-40).

AD-43. From Burbank Blogger comes a disturbing story about homophobia and ethnicity by Mike Gatto's Republican opponent Sunder Ramani. In the race to replace Paul Krekorian in the 43rd Assembly District with a significant Armenian population, apparently people employed by Ramani have been calling Armenian households and telling them (in Armenian) not to vote for Gatto because he supports "homosexual legislation." Burbank Blogger even has proof this is going on because one of the phone calls has been taped and the audio posted to YouTube (with English translation). The race for the 43rd has become increasingly bizarre, with a freak misprint in vote-by-mail ballots making the complicated election (there's both a special election run-off and a general primary election on the same ballot) even moreso. MadProfessah has endorsed Gatto and hopes that Ramani is punished for stooping to under-the-radar appeals to ethnic homophobia.

AD-47. The race to replace soon-to-be-Congressmember Karen Bass is starting to get more attention in the LGBT community. Reggie Jones-Sawyer won the endorsement of the Stonewall Democratic Club last month, but Holly Mitchell has more cash on hand ($150k to $80k) and the official California Democratic Party nomination. Both are strong supports of full LGBT equality.

Poll Shows Majority Support For AZ Immigration Law

Well, isn't that special? I guess we really are in a post-racial Obama era now, right? Not.

At least two polls (New York Times/CBS and Gallup) show majority support among Americans for Arizona's new harsh anti-immigrant law even though they realize it will probably lead to racial profiling.

The public broadly agrees, across party lines, that the United States could be doing more along its border to keep illegal immigrants out. The view was shared by 78 percent of the respondents.

[...]

Although the respondents broadly agreed that the Arizona law would result in racial profiling, overburden local and state law enforcement agencies and decrease the willingness of illegal immigrants to report crimes for fear of deportation, large majorities said it would reduce the number of illegal immigrants in the state, deter illegal border crossings and, to a lesser extent, reduce crime.

Some attitudes about immigration have remained stable among the public. Most still say illegal immigrants weaken the nation’s economy rather than strengthen it, and public opinion remains divided over how the United States should handle illegal immigrants currently in the country.

But American attitudes toward the law and whether illegal immigrants already here should have a path to citizenship differed markedly across regions and parties. Westerners and Northeasterners, for example, are significantly more likely than those in other regions to say the recent law in Arizona goes too far. And Democrats are much more likely than Republicans or independents to support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants now in the country.

Just 8 percent of Americans said the immigration system needed only minor changes. The vast majority said it needed reworking, including 44 percent who said it needed to be completely rebuilt and 45 percent who said it needed fundamental changes.

So, maybe we'll see a stronger push for comprehensive immigration reform this year after all? Only time will tell.

It should be noted that it is false that undocumented immigrants do not pay taxes. First of all, everyone pays sales taxes. Also, many undocumented immigrants pay state and federal income taxes. Tax collecting agencies do not share information with immigration agencies.

LAT/USC Poll Shows 52-40% Marriage Support

Buried in the recesses of the new poll from The Los Angeles Times/USC is this little nugget of information that for the second time in two weeks indicates that a majority of Californians support marriage equality.

52% of respondents (40% strongly, 12% not so strongly) answer Yes to the question "Do you think that same-sex couples should be allowed to become legally married in the state of
California?" while just 40% (32% strongly, 8% not so strongly) answer No.

This is the first time I have seen strong supporters of marriage equality outnumber the strong opponents. This poll was conducted March 23-30th by phone of 1515 registered voters leaving a margin of error of ± 2.6 percentage points, which means the lead for marriage equality is real. In this same poll it shows a lead for Meg Whitman over Jerry Brown of 44 to 42 points.

I'd like to see one more poll showing majority support for marriage equality before I would be confident saying that california voters are in favor of equality for same-sex couples.