WATCH: Maine NO ON 1 Documentary

PART ONE:

PART 2:

Maine Question 1 Money Total: Over $9m

Joe.My.God has the details of the more than 9 million dollars that was spent to support and oppose Maine's Question 1, which was passed by voters on Tuesday and repealed LD-1020, which would have legalized civil marriage for same-sex couples in that state.

Proponents

The committees that supported Question 1 got their funding almost entirely from churches and conservative Christian organizations and their employees, who gave $3 million, which is 89 percent of the proponents' total. Almost half of proponents' contributions came from the National Organization for Marriage, a conservative Christian group based in New Jersey, which gave $1.6 million. Focus on the Family gave $179,500. The Roman Catholic Diocese of Portland, another large donor, gave $285,988—all to its own ballot committee. In total, dioceses and churches provided $578,904. Out-of-state churches sent in $269,650. Out-of state donors from 45 other states gave $2.1 million to support the measure. New Jersey topped the list at $1.6 million. In a distant second place, Colorado donors gave $143,070, and those from the District of Columbia gave $75,275.

Opponents

The committees that opposed Question 1 relied less on the support of a few major organizations. Opponents of the measure raised money from over 10,000 donors—12 times more than proponents reported. Gay-rights groups and their employees gave $1.8 million, or 31 percent of the total raised by opponents. The Human Rights Campaign topped the list, giving $367,067. The Gill Foundation contributed $275,000. Freedom to Marry gave $200,000 and another $30,000 came from the Vermont affiliate. The National Gay & Lesbian Task Force gave $159,056, and EqualityMaine gave $152,151. Out-of-state donors contributed $3.3 million to oppose to the measure. Donations came from all 50 states; the top locations were New York ($761,498), Massachusetts ($653,889), and the District of Columbia ($619,566).

I suppose it is progress that the donors for supporting the denial of fundamental rights to a minority group are not coming from large groups of people, but only a small cadre of religiously motivated heterosexual supremacists.

Thoughts On Maine: We Will Prevail (Eventually)

Yesterday's election results are in and it is becoming pretty clear that Maine voters have voted to prevent their state's marriage equality law passed by the Legislature and signed by the Governor from going into effect.

With 96% of precints voting, Question 1 is passing:

Yes	296289	52.79%
No	264970	47.21%

As my fellow blogger Greta Christina says, I hope that people looking at these results will give up the fiction that Proposition 8 passed last year because of the No On 8's alleged incompetency (or Black voters' alleged homophobia). Everyone agrees that Maine's No On 1 ran an excellent campaign and most rational people understand that religiosity not race is the most significant factor in voters' position on marriage equality. And she also makes the point that people who are gunning to return to the ballot in 2010 might want to reconsider that notion:

It could well be that Prop 8 won in California because the No on 8 campaign made mistakes. But it could also be that Prop 8 won in California because same-sex marriage has never, ever won at the ballot box in the U.S. It could be that Prop 8 won because same-sex marriage is just a really hard sell right now. I do think time is on our side... but when it comes to the ballot box, it isn't on our side yet.

Two: I hope the people who want to put same-sex marriage back on the ballot in California in 2010 take a long, hard look at whether that's really a good idea, and whether the timing is right.

Same-sex marriage is just really hard to win at the ballot right now. I think we need to accept that. We stand a much better chance of winning in 2012 than we do in 2010. To be blunt about it: Support for same-sex marriage skews, more than with almost any other demographic, according to age. The younger people are, the more likely they are to support it. To be brutally blunt: As more old people die, and as more young people become old enough to vote, the odds skew more and more in our favor. Also, the economy in California truly and profoundly sucks right now, and people just won't be able to donate the kind of money to a political campaign that they did in 2008. And 2012 is a Presidential election year, when voter turnout is always higher -- and high voter turnout almost always means more young voters, and almost always favors liberal candidates and causes.

I bolded the key sentences in the excerpt above. Greta Christina is just saying what MadProfessah and others have been saying since July: 2012 is the earliest Californian's should consider returning to the ballot to restore marriage rights to same-sex couples.

There are now 32 states where voters have been faced with the question of whether to be pro-gay or anti-gay with regards to relationship recognition for same-sex couples. The anti-gay side has won 31 times and lost twice (Arizona voters defeated a ballot measure that would have banned marriage for same-sex couples AND domestic partnerships in 2006 but then approved an initiative that only banned same-sex marriage in 2008. In 2009 it looks like we are winning Referendum 71 in Washington State).

On the question of marriage equality itself without domestic partnership or civil unions in the picture LGBTs have lost 31 statewide elections.

Do we really want to make it 32 in 2010?

Protect Main Equality/ No On 1 Concedes Defeat

Jesse Connolly the campaign manager of Protect Maine Equality/No On 1 released the following statement:

Tonight, hundreds of thousands of Maine voters stood for equality, but in the end, it wasn't enough.

I am proud of the thousands of Mainers who knocked on doors, made phone calls and talked to their family, friends and neighbors about the basic premise of treating all Maine families equally.

And I'm proud of this campaign because the stories we told and the images we shared were of real Mainers -- parents who stood up for their children, and couples who simply wanted to marry the person they love.

We're in this for the long haul. For next week, and next month, and next year-- until all Maine families are treated equally. Because in the end, this has always been about love and family and that will always be something worth fighting for.

2009 Election Results: Maine Bad, Washngton Good

The New York Times website ends up coming through...

Maine: Reject Gay Marriage Law

Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?

50% reporting Washington: Domestic Partnerships

Maine: Reject Gay Marriage Law

Answer	Party	Votes	Pct.
Yes	—	240,647	52.4%
No	—	218,478	47.6

Washington: Domestic Partnerships

Answer	Party	Votes	Pct.
Approve	—	506,936	51.1%
Reject	—	484,567	48.9

Maine Question 1 Very Very Close

Best results are at:

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/

http://www.wmtw.com/politics/feature.html

http://www.openleft.com/diary/15830/maine-election-results-thread-2

Or Twitter: Follow @madprofessah

Latest result is

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No	125399	50.12%
Yes	124774	49.88%

Nate Silver Analyzes Maine Polls, Predicts NO ON 1 Win

Today at FiveThirtyEight.com Nate Silver analyzes the latest PPP poll (which shows Question 1 passing and lead to a NO ON 1 FUNDRAISING RED ALERT) but still gives the forces for equality 5:2 odds of prevailing on election day tomorrow.

Maine -- Question 1 -- "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" .

The Positions: A 'Yes' vote overturns same-sex marriage, which the state legislature approved in May. A 'No' vote preserves same-sex marriage.

The Polls: As in the other elections this cycle, recent polling shows somewhat contradictory results. A Research 2000 / Daily Kos poll shows Question 1 losing by one point. A Pan Atlantic SMS poll shows the initiative losing by 11 points. But a fresh PPP poll shows it passing by 4 points. The Research 2000 and Pan Atlantic polls showed slight movement toward the 'No' side from their previous surveys, while the PPP poll showed movement toward the 'Yes' side. The only other pollster to have surveyed the race is Democracy Corps, which had shown Question 1 losing by 9 points among both registered and likely voters, although that poll is now five weeks old.

Analysis: All the polls show a very low number of undecideds, so like most close elections, it's a question of turnout. And the pollsters have different opinions about what turnout is liable to be. PPP has people under 45 representing about 38 percent of the electorate, whereas Research 2000 has them at 51 percent of the electorate. PPP's figures are a closer match for Maine's 2006 electorate, when 36 percent of voters were 45 or under.

On the other hand, PPP shows conservatives outnumbering liberals 36-23, whereas those numbers have been about evenly split in exit polling of Maine's elections in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Were the liberal-conservative split to match 2006, for example, when Maine's electorate was 26 percent liberal, 26 percent conservative, and 48 percent moderate, then Question 1 would fail 46-53, according to PPP's internals.

[...]

The Odds: A statistical analysis I conducted last month, which was based on the results from previous gay marriage referenda in other states, gave the Yes on 1 side just an 11 percent chance of prevailing, although the fraction rises to 32 percent after an ad-hoc adjustment for the fact that this is an off-year election. In spite of the PPP poll, I'm not especially persuaded to deviate substantially from those numbers: the polling average still favors the 'No' side, albeit narrowly; the 'No' side seems to have run the superior campaign, and the cellphone issue may be worth a point or two. The tight polling, certainly, should keep everybody on their toes, and gay marriage could quite easily be overturned. But I'd still put the Yes on 1 side as about a 5-to-2 underdog.

New Maine Poll (51 Yes, 47 No): Marriage Equality Could Lose Tuesday

The new Maine poll from Public Policy Poll has supporters of marriage equality peeing in our pants since, for the first time, polling shows a majority deciding NOT to allow same-sex marriages.

At 51-47 it’s within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.

The measure’s fate could be determined by the age composition of the electorate on Tuesday. Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48. Last year exit polls showed more voters under 30 turning out for the Presidential election than ones over 65 but we expect seniors to turn out at a much higher rate than younger voters this year, as is often the case in off year elections. If the electorate ends up being younger than we anticipate the fight could be even closer.

Independents support the measure 52-46. There are slightly more Democrats (27%) in favor of it than there are Republicans (22%) opposed to it. Men support it by a 56-42 margin, women are opposed 52-46. It’s just going to come down to which side does the better job of getting its people out.

Protect Maine Equality / No On 1 has sent out a RED ALERT to try and raise $50,000 to counter this hateful new radio ad the heterosexual supremacists have backed with $25,000. Please click on the thermometer on this page and kick in at least $31 since this will be the 31st statewide vote on marriage equality and could be the first one that the good guys will win!

What We'll See If Question 1 Fails in Maine on Tuesday

No On 1 Responds With Devastating Ad: "Clear"

This latest (last?) television ad from No On 1/Protect Maine Equality should have the heterosexual supremacists running scared. I hope it gets seen as many more times by Maine voters than their hateful lying screeds.

Let me know what you think:

Latest Maine Poll on Question 1: 48 No, 47 Yes

The latest poll from DailyKos on Maine is out:

QUESTION: As you may know, there will be one question on the ballot this November in Maine addressing the issue of same-sex unions. In part, it will read "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry?" A "YES" vote takes away the right of same-sex couples to marry. A "NO" vote keeps the right of same-sex couples to marry. If the election were held today, would you vote YES or NO on this question?

	YES	NO	NOT SURE
ALL	47	48	5
MEN	52	44	4
WOMEN	42	52	6
DEMOCRATS	29	65	6
REPUBLICANS	75	19	6
INDEPENDENTS	43	54	3
18-29	41	55	4
30-44	44	51	5
45-59	50	45	5
60+	54	39	7
DISTRICT 1	44	53	3
DISTRICT 2	50	43	7

QUESTION: Regardless of how you might vote, do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally?

	FAVOR	OPPOSE	NOT SURE
ALL	49	48	3
MEN	45	53	2
WOMEN	53	43	4
DEMOCRATS	67	30	3
REPUBLICANS	18	79	3
INDEPENDENTS	55	42	3
18-29	57	39	4
30-44	54	44	2
45-59	46	52	2
60+	36	58	6
DISTRICT 1	52	44	4
DISTRICT 2	45	53	2

This one is going to go down to the wire, folks! To do your part, don't forget that YOU can help from anywhere in the nation by calling Maine voters from your home, office or cell phone.

It is not a good sign that a bare plurality (instead of a majority) supports marriage equality in this poll. That is one of the pre-conditions I think one needs to have in order to move forward with a ballot measure enacting marriage in a state (the other two are a clear organizational plan and strategy and millions of dollars in the bank at the onset)

No on 1 Ad Shows Multiple Same-Sex Couples and Family

WATCH: Yes on 1 Repeats "They After YOUR Kids" Libel

3-2-1 Countdown for Equality: No Bittersweet Victories

Washington:

Who we are: Approve Referendum 71 is the campaign to preserve domestic partnerships in Washington State. By voting to approve, voters retain the domestic partnership laws that were passed during this year's legislative session, including using sick leave to care for a partner, adoption rights, insurance rights, and more.

What we need: We need phone bankers to get our supporters out to vote. Washington is an all mail-in ballot state, and we need to ensure our supporters put their ballots in the mail. Also, youth turnout is a critical component of our campaign, and youth turnout historically drops in off-year elections. So we need a lot of help to turn them out.

How you do it: Sign up here to make remote calls for Approve 71. We'll then contact you for a training, and you can make GOTV calls.

Maine:Who we are: The No On 1/Protect Maine Equality campaign is working to protect Maine's recently-passed law legalizing marriage equality for same-sex couples. Our opponents have put the issue on the ballot for Nov 3, 2009. Because of Maine's early voting election laws, people are already voting at the polls, so we need help immediately to turn out our side at the polls.

What we need: We need you to devote a few hours to Call for Equality. Call for Equality is a virtual phonebank set up so that you can call Maine voters wherever you are. Much of Maine is rural, where canvassing isn't effective, so we need to reach these voters- along with other supporters- by phone. All you need is a phone and internet connection. No experience required! We'll provide the training, and all you need is a a few hours to help get a win in Maine.

How you do it: Click here to sign up for a training and your shift. There are lots of times available for your convenience.

Kalamazoo, MI:

Who We Are: The Yes on Ordinance 1856 / One Kalamazoo campaign is working in Michigan to support the City Commission of Kalamazoo's twice approved ordinance for housing, employment, and public accommodation protections for gay and transgender residents. Opponents forced a public referendum on the ordinance so dedicated local volunteers, led by former Stonewall Democrats Executive Director Jon Hoadley, are working to ensure voters say YES to fairness and equality and keep Ordinance 1856.

Why The Urgency: In the final weeks, the opposition has gone all out with aggressive disinformation and misleading red herrings to try to defeat the ordinance. This includes signs that say "No to Discrimination" (even though voting No actually supports continued discrimination of GLBT residents), transphobic door hangers and fliers, and now radio ads that falsely suggest that criminal behavior will become legal when this simply isn't true. The Yes on Ordinance 1856 supporters are better organized but many voters who want to vote for gay and transgender people are getting confused by the opposition.

How To Help:

1) Help the One Kalamazoo campaign raise a final $10,000 specifically dedicated to fight back against the lies on the local TV and radio airwaves and fully fund the campaign's final field and GOTV efforts.

Give here: http://www.actblue.com/page/3-2-1-countdown

2) If you live nearby and can physically volunteer in Kalamazoo sign up here. If you know anyone that lives in Kalamazoo, use the One Kalamazoo campaign's online canvass tool to remind those voters that they need to vote on November 3rd and vote YES on Ordinance 1856 to support equality for gay and transgender people.

Contact voters: http://www.onekalamazoo.com/tellfriends2

VIDEO: Yes On 1 Latest Ad Promotes Maine DP

Fascinating. With one week to go, and mounting evidence that they are losing the electoral battle to defeat marriage equality in Maine, the Yes on 1 heterosexual supremacists have started running an ad claiming that "same-sex marriage is controversial" and lists the states that have voted to ban the practice (too fast a list to really be effective). However, then the shock is that they mention Maine's domestic partnership law and claims that gays are "provided substantial protections for gay couples" and highlight the Maine code which claims that domestic partnerships are "accorded a legal status similar to that of a married person" in yellow on the screen.

So, they just completely undermined their fellow heterosexual supremacists in Washington state who are claiming domestic partnerships are the same thing as marriage. However, in Maine the rights that go along with domestic partnerships are EXTREMELY limited, so to compare those to marriage is simply laughable. It's very interesting to see that they are switching tactics so close to election day. I think they're running scared. We'll see who is right in about 7 days.

VOTE NO ON 1!

With 8 Days Until Election Day, NO ON 1 Takes 53-42 Lead

A new poll out from Maine Public Broadcasting has good news for the good guys in the fight over marriage equality in Maine.

Pan Atlantic's Patrick Murphy says the survey of 400 likely voters found 53 percent opposing Question 1, which would repeal Maine's gay marriage law, while 42 percent favor the measure and six percent remain undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Murphy says Question 1 is getting a different reaction in Maine's two congressional districts, with voters in the 1st District favoring the measure by a 20 point spread, while voters in the 2nd District remain nearly equally divided. He says among the state's Catholic voters, the measure has a narrow margin of support, 49 to 46 percent.

Notice that this is showing a lead for the NO side which is outside the margin of error of the poll. Also, with 8 days left to go, many people are voting by absentee (like these students at Bowdoin College) while some Maine towns are allowing early voting.

I am beginning to have a good feeling about this, VOTE NO ON 1/PROTECT MAINE EQUALITY!

VIDEO: Maine TV Coverage of Bowdoin Students Voting

I quite enjoyed my visit to Bowdoin College earlier this year where I gave a talk about race, marriage equality and Proposition 8 called "Gay is NOT the new Black." It's good to see these students exercising their right to vote on Question 1, which will decide the fate of gay marriage in Maine for the near future.

Boston Globe Endorses Maine's No On Question 1

Boston Globe editorializes in favor of marriage equality today. It is so good, here it is in its entirety:

MARRIAGE AFFORDS unparalleled rights and benefits to people who commit to long-term relationships. All people, regardless of sexual orientation, should have an equal right to marry under the law. On Election Day, Maine voters should vote “no’’ on ballot Question 1 and respect the rights of their neighbors and fellow citizens to live how they choose.

Supporters of the ballot initiative argue that same-sex marriage erodes heterosexual marriage, but experience has proven them wrong: Since Massachusetts legalized gay marriage five years ago, the state has seen its divorce rate, already the lowest in the nation, decline further. But that hasn’t stopped supporters of the initiative from making other wild claims. No, gay marriage is not being taught, alongside spelling and long division, as part of the public-school curriculum in Massachusetts. No, an equal right to civil marriage has not rendered Massachusetts genderless.

Religions differ in their beliefs, customs, and ceremonies about marriage - none of which will be affected by a new Maine law that deals only with civil marriages. If Question 1 fails, churches and other religious groups could still refuse to perform same-sex marriages. But the law would ensure that courts will continue to marry gay and lesbian couples.

The law signed by Governor John E. Baldacci in May recognizes that legalizing gay marriage is a matter of fairness. A civil union, the governor said, is not equal to a marriage. Just as the state of Maine would not deny the equal rights and protections of the law to its other citizens, it should not deny them to gay people who wish to build stable families. A vote of “no’’ on Question 1 is a vote for equal protection of the laws, a guarantee in Maine’s constitution and in the country’s that all citizens should defend and embrace.

Maine YES ON 1 Gets $1.1 MILLION from NOM

Sound the alarm! The odious National Organization for Marriage has donated $1.1 million dollars to the heterosexual supremacists called "Stand for Marriage Maine" in the last couple days to make up for the hefty financial advantage the NO ON 1/Protect Maine Equality side had been enjoying as of October 15th.

The latest totals are:

Stand For Marriage Maine            $2,547,860.40                  
Protect Maine Equality/No On 1      $4,069,053.71                   

Just last week, NO ON 1 had a lead of nearly $1.6 million dollars ($2.7m to $1.1m), now that lead has been reduced to $1.5 million.

With recent polls showing Question 1 basically tied at 48-48 this is the time to GET OUT THE VOTE and, if you live on the East Coast, GET THEE TO MAINE!

VIDEO: New Ad From Yes on 1 Liars

This is wild. I was at the LGBT caucus at Netroots Nation in Pittsburgh this summer where Monique Hoefflinger made the remarks "Literally, we started this campaign in 2005." The 2005 Maine NOn-Discrimination Ordinance and the 2009 Maine Marriage bill LD-1020 have nothing to do with each other except the fact they both involve expanding rights for LGBT citizens!