AD-53: Lau Denied CDP Endorsement By 1 Vote

An interesting race in the 53rd Assembly District has had some exciting developments recently. On April 12th, Betsy Butler (the candidate with most cash) won the endorsement of the Stonewall Democratic Club by a vote of 38-22 (a margin of victory of a mere three votes, since the threshold is 60 percent, or at least 36 to 24) over openly gay Mitch Ward, the African American mayor of Manhattan Beach. This was seen as a surprising result by many, with an LGBT Democratic club endorsing a straight ally over an openly gay candidate. MadProfessah a member of the Steering Committee of the club, introduced Mayor Ward before he addressed the members of the club in the wee hours of the meeting. It was the most closely contested endorsement result of the evening.

But on Saturday April 17th at the Los Angeles convention of the California Democratic Party an even closer vote happened. James Lau was prevented from getting the endorsement of the state party at a caucus because he failed to garner 60% of the votes cast by one vote. And that one vote was a provisional vote that was for Lau, but was disqualified because the delegate turned out not to live in AD-53 and was thus ineligible. Butler and Ward were the only other candidates to receive votes. Other people who had not been following the race closely were surprised to see Lau with such a strong showing, but since he was once in the leadership of the 53rd Assembly District local Democratic club.

Saturday Politics: Ward's Internal Poll Shows Lead in AD-53

Mitch Ward released an internal poll showing him with a lead over the other candidates in the race to replace Assembymember Ted Lieu in the 53rd district. According to the telephone poll of 400 likely June 2010 Democratic primary voters between February 23-25, Ward was supported by 13%, James Lau 4%, Kate Anderson 4%, Betsy Butler 3% with "lower amounts for other candidates."

Considering that the poll has a margin of error of +/- 5 points, these results are not that unusual for 3 months before a low-profile election. But, wait, there's more!

According to the memo prepared by Goodwin Simon Strategic Research, after voters learn more information about the candidates after being read "detailed and fair paragraphs" Ward takes a lead of 32% with all the other candidates garnering no more than 9% each.

The memo attempts to explain Mitch Ward's lead by showing that voters preferred a qualified candidate from the South Bay to a qualified candidate from the Venice and Marina del Rey area by a margin of 40% to 26%. Mitch Ward is the current Mayor of Manhattan Beach, and is the only major candidate whose political base is South of Los Angeles Airport. The memo goes on to note that two of the last three people to represent the district not only had race in common (Ted Lieu and George Nakano are both Asian American), but they were also both from the South Bay.

I guess we'll find out on June 8, 2010. MadProfessah has endorsed Mitch Ward, who if elected would become the first openly gay, African American person ever elected to the California legislature and the 3rd Black LGBT person to be elected to a state legislature, ever.

Saturday Politics: AD-43 and AD-53

Saturdays are local politics days at MadProfessah.com

Today there are stories about two Los Angeles area State Assemby races that I have been following closely, AD-53 and AD-43.

In the 53rd Assembly District race to replace termed-out Ted Lieu (who is running for California Attorney General) openly gay Mayor of Redondo Manhattan Beach Mitch Ward has been endorsed by the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund. Ward is competing in a crowded field which includes straight Equality California board member (and registered lobbyist) Betsy Butler, her ex-boyfriend Jim Aldinger, city prosecutor Nick Karno, enviromentalist James Lau, former staffers Kate Anderson and Edgar Saenz, and for good measure, a 22-year-old Tea Party activist named Neal Mintz. Only Aldinger and Ward have held elected office before. The big news this week is that HONOR PAC, California's Latino LGBT political action committee has endorsed Anderson in the race. MadProfessah has endorsed Mitch Ward. Lau has been the most successful fundraiser to date and still has the most cash on hand, closely followed by Butler, Anderson and Karno who each have close to 200,000 to spend before the June 8 primary.

In the 43rd Assembly District race to replace now-Los Angeles City Councilman Paul Krekorian, internal polls show a narrow lead for attorney Mike Gatto where the most popular candidate is "Undecided." Last week, we reported that Andrew Westall had dropped out of the race but in the poll conducted of 400 residents in the district he was included and the results were Gatto 16%, Nayiri Nahabedian 12%, Westall 10%, Chahe Keuroghelian 6% among Democratic primary voters with 56% undecided. Interestingly, when told information about the candidates, Gatto had the largest increase, rising 26 points to 42%, Nahabedian 19% (+7), Westall 14% (+4), Keuroghelian 8% (+2) and Undecided falling 39 points to a mere 17%. Gatto also leads the money race, but the path to victory is complicated by the three elections that one needs to win in order to claim the seat in November.

Feel free to send me any suggestions for future Saturday local politics stories!

AD-53: Money Changes Everything?

The new front runner in AD-53?

The race to replace Ted Lieu in the 53rd State Assembly District has taken a strange turn since MadProfessah first reported on it in May. One candidate, Al Muratsuchi, has decided not to run and another has surprisingly joined the race, and the newcomer happens to be the ex-boyfriend of one of the other top candidates (not the gay one)!

According to a Daily Breeze article by Gene Maddaus, Jim Aldinger is the former boyfriend of Betsy Butler and she once sued him for $5,000 after they broke up to get some furniture back he attempted to bogart.

Aldinger and Butler parted on bad terms about seven years ago. He refused to relinquish some furniture that she'd had delivered to his house, and she had to sue him to retrieve it.

In 2004, a judge ordered him to pay her $5,000.

Both candidates say that episode is in the past and should not be relevant to the coming campaign. But their history together is likely to make the race somewhat awkward, at the least, and also raises questions about Aldinger's motives for running.

Aldinger, 48, said he is not motivated by resentment or hostility toward an ex-girlfriend who took him to court.

"This is something that's been in my mind for some time," he said. "This is not something that I would take lightly. I think I'm the most qualified."

Well, I guess all's fair in love, war and politics?

The question is, who is the frontrunner in this race? The August 2009 fundraising reports (pdf) by the Fair Political Practices Commission reveal some surprising data:

CANDIDATE                  CASH ON HAND       $RAISED    $SPENT
Jim Aldinger               $0                  $0         $322
Kate Anderson              $131,199           $135,090   $3,891
Betsy Butler               $101,487           $81,229    $25,277
Nick Karno                 $110,003           $115,768   $10,457
James Lau                  $211,030           $211,435   $2,267
Mitch Ward                 $32,725            $60,380    $29,154

The most important number is the amount of cash on hand right now, and clearly James Lau (who was not even on my list of potential candidates in May) is in the lead.

Interestingly, the openly gay Mayor Pro tem of Manhattan Beach Mitch Ward has spent the most money (so is clearly doing the most actual campaigning for the seat) is also way back in the middle of the pack on both money raised and cash on hand.

So, who is James Lau? According to his facebook page, he is the Director of the California League of Conservation Voters Education Fund and Chair of the 53rd Assembly District Democratic Central Committee. He is also apparently active on ActBlue and other online political junkie websites, like TotalCapitol.com.

MadProfessah will be continue to follow the contested Assembly races in Los Angeles County, especially where there is an openly LGBT candidate running.

AD-53: Hot Race Beginning To Get Coverage

Kate Anderson

Nick Karno

Al Muratsuchi

Mitch Ward

Betsy Butler

The Daily Breeze printed an article on the race to replace Ted Lieu (who is termed out in 2010 and is running for Attorney General) inthe 53rd Assembly District. At the California Democratic Convention in Sacramento last month MadProfessah was able to run into some of the major candidates in this (currently below-the-radar) electoral battle.

Here's an excerpt:

When the seat was last open, after the death of incumbent Mike Gordon in 2005, Democrats held a six-point registration advantage in the district. That advantage has since doubled to 12 points.

[...]

Perhaps the most formidable candidate at this early stage is Betsy Butler, who has secured several major endorsements despite being virtually unknown in the 53rd District.

Butler is the top fundraiser for Consumer Attorneys of California, a lobbying group for trial lawyers. Butler, 45, says she splits her time between her job in Sacramento and her home in Marina del Rey.

[...]

Lieu is staying neutral, at least for now.

The other candidates may have stronger ties to the local community, but they will have to struggle to compete financially.

Among them is Mitch Ward, who is the first black councilman ever elected in Manhattan Beach. Ward, 48, has the backing of his fellow council members, but he will have to introduce himself to the rest of the district, which extends from Venice to Torrance and Lomita.

Additionally, Nick Karno (deputy city attorney in Los Angeles and Venice Neighborhood Council member, 39), Al Muratsuchi (deputy State Attorney General and Torrance School Board member,44) and Kate Anderson (former aide to U.S. Rep. Waxman and lawyer, 37) are also considered in the article.

MadProfessah is interested in the race because if (as expected) Ward and Butler become the two top candidates in the race, as an elected delegate I will be voting on which one should receive the official nomination of the California Democratic Party at next Spring's convention in Southern California.

For LGBT People of Color this decision may be a difficult one because although Ward would become the first African American LGBT person ever elected to the California legislature. However, Butler is a longtime member of the board of directors of Equality California, the state's largest LGBT political advocacy organization and a very strong LGBT ally who is positioning herself as the more "viable" candidate.

It's almost like a mini-reprise of the Ragnarök battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008. Hopefully (for Ward) this battle turns out the same way.

Report from CA Democratic Convention: Day 2 & 3

The second full day of the California Democratic Convention was a very busy affair. There were many speeches by politicians in the main hall (Jerry Brown, Gavin Newsom, Barbara Boxer, Nancy Pelosi, etc etc).

Because I had a blogger credential, I was able to attend U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer press conference after her speech at the convention which was attended by both bloggers and members of the "old media." It was a very interesting experience. I had a question prepared, but I was too shy to ask it. My qeuestion would have been:

Senator, according to several national LGBT civil rights organizations there are currently nine United States Senators (10 if you count Al Franken) who have publicly announced their support for marriage equality. I think many of us in this room are aware of your position on this issue, but my question is would you like to use this opportunity to go on the record in favor of marriage equality, especially in light of the state Supreme Court's imminent ruling on the legality of Proposition 8 and the ongoing discussion about a future ballot measure to legalize the practice if the Court upholds the measure?

But, the other questions asked at the press conference were pretty good, if a bit focussed on the potential challenge of Carly Fiorina.

Later, in the day I went to the "Recession Reception" hosted by Attorney General Jerry Brown at the historic Governor's Mansion. At the reception I ran into the openly gay mayor of Mahattan Beach Mitch Ward who is running for the 53rd Assembly District seat currently held by Ted Lieu who is running for Attorney General. Ward is the first person of color (African American) elected to the Manhattan Beach city council in over one hundred years. Also at the reception was Ward's main rival for the seat, Betsy Butler who says she has already received the endorsement of Assembly Speaker Karen Bass.

Luis Lopez (President, HonorPAC, the Latina/o LGBT political action committee),
Hans Johnson (Board Member, NGLTF) and
Jerry Brown (CA Attorney General and Former Governor)

After the recession reception, I hung out with Luis and Hans and we ran into HonorPAC-endorsed, openly gay Long Beach city councilman Robert Garcia (who was the youngest person ever elected to that august body at the age of 31 a few weeks ago).

31-year-old openly gay Long Beach city councilman Robert Garcia with Luis Lopez

On Friday I had previously reported that I had run into openly gay, African American guy who is running for Ellen Tauscher's congressional seat in the 10th district. Here's a picture of Anthony Woods (left) with Tauren Jones, a volunteer for the African American caucus of the California Democratic Party.
(Notice the spiffy red-green-black pin on his lapel).