AD-53: Lau Denied CDP Endorsement By 1 Vote

An interesting race in the 53rd Assembly District has had some exciting developments recently. On April 12th, Betsy Butler (the candidate with most cash) won the endorsement of the Stonewall Democratic Club by a vote of 38-22 (a margin of victory of a mere three votes, since the threshold is 60 percent, or at least 36 to 24) over openly gay Mitch Ward, the African American mayor of Manhattan Beach. This was seen as a surprising result by many, with an LGBT Democratic club endorsing a straight ally over an openly gay candidate. MadProfessah a member of the Steering Committee of the club, introduced Mayor Ward before he addressed the members of the club in the wee hours of the meeting. It was the most closely contested endorsement result of the evening.

But on Saturday April 17th at the Los Angeles convention of the California Democratic Party an even closer vote happened. James Lau was prevented from getting the endorsement of the state party at a caucus because he failed to garner 60% of the votes cast by one vote. And that one vote was a provisional vote that was for Lau, but was disqualified because the delegate turned out not to live in AD-53 and was thus ineligible. Butler and Ward were the only other candidates to receive votes. Other people who had not been following the race closely were surprised to see Lau with such a strong showing, but since he was once in the leadership of the 53rd Assembly District local Democratic club.

Saturday Politics: Ward's Internal Poll Shows Lead in AD-53

Mitch Ward released an internal poll showing him with a lead over the other candidates in the race to replace Assembymember Ted Lieu in the 53rd district. According to the telephone poll of 400 likely June 2010 Democratic primary voters between February 23-25, Ward was supported by 13%, James Lau 4%, Kate Anderson 4%, Betsy Butler 3% with "lower amounts for other candidates."

Considering that the poll has a margin of error of +/- 5 points, these results are not that unusual for 3 months before a low-profile election. But, wait, there's more!

According to the memo prepared by Goodwin Simon Strategic Research, after voters learn more information about the candidates after being read "detailed and fair paragraphs" Ward takes a lead of 32% with all the other candidates garnering no more than 9% each.

The memo attempts to explain Mitch Ward's lead by showing that voters preferred a qualified candidate from the South Bay to a qualified candidate from the Venice and Marina del Rey area by a margin of 40% to 26%. Mitch Ward is the current Mayor of Manhattan Beach, and is the only major candidate whose political base is South of Los Angeles Airport. The memo goes on to note that two of the last three people to represent the district not only had race in common (Ted Lieu and George Nakano are both Asian American), but they were also both from the South Bay.

I guess we'll find out on June 8, 2010. MadProfessah has endorsed Mitch Ward, who if elected would become the first openly gay, African American person ever elected to the California legislature and the 3rd Black LGBT person to be elected to a state legislature, ever.