AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2009: Men's Final PREVIEW

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Roger Federer SUI (2). For the seventh time in a Grand Slam final, Federer and Nadal will face each other as the two top players in the world. Nadal has won 4 of those matches, including the instant classic from Wimbledon 2008, which some commentators are calling the greatest match of the decade, or even the greatest ever. If Federer is indeed the Greatest Of All Time, why is it that he consistently loses to his Spanish nemesis?

Nadal not only leads Federer 12-6 in overall head-to-head clashes, the Spaniard beat the Swiss all four times they played in 2008!

Nadal is now the #1 player in the world and Federer is #2. Federer is now at 13 major titles, one away from tennis immortality at age 27 while Nadal currently has 5 and is more than 5 years younger.

All this data would seem to lead to the conclusion that Nadal should defeat Federer (again) for his first hard court major in Melbourne Sunday night. And it is indeed quite likely that will happen. But somehow I doubt it.

Although I do think that Nadal has greatly improved his game since their first Grand Slam meeting in 2005 and even more in 2008, he has still not optimized his impressive, athletic game on hard courts. The very fact that he played an incredible 5 hour, 14 minute match against Fernando Verdasco simply to reach his first hardcourt major final is both an indication of Nadal's indomitable win but also a nagging reminder that there is still room for improvement in Nadal's game on this fastest of surfaces.

The only players to beat Federer in Melbourne since 2004 have been Marat Safin in 2005 and Novak Djokovic in 2008 and both managed the feat in a semifinal, not a final. Federer is a big match player (as is Nadal, obviously) and he desperately wants to win his 14th major title.

However, in the end it simply comes down to who plays better on the day (and sometimes, a little luck). While it took over 5 hours to determine the winner of the second semifinal, Federer beat Andy Roddick in just over 2 hours, in an encounter that was really never in doubt.

I do believe that Federer playing at his best would still beat Nadal playing at his best, but it's not clear for how much longer that will be true. Very soon (and the point may have been reached already as indicated by Nadal's Wimbledon title) Federer's very best will not be enough to surpass Nadal's very best. Then the question is how will the he (and the rest of the field) react, and whether Federerwill be able to regroup and actually exceed Sampras' milestone of 14 major singles titles. I believe 2009 will be the year we find out the definitive answer to these questions, starting with a result in tomorrow's Men's final.

PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets (or Nadal in 5).

Federer Loses 1st Match Back After Wimbledon Loss

World #1 and 12-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer lost for the tenth time in 2008, this time to Frenchman (and World #22) Gilles Simon 2-6 7-5 6-4 in the 2nd round of the ATP Masters Series event in Montreal Canada. Simon (who won last week's ATP U.S. Open Series tournament in Indianapolis) was down 1-3 in the final set, which featured an unlikely 5 breaks of service in 10 games.

"The hardcourt season just started so it is not the end of the world but I wish I could have started better," Federer said. "I like this surface, I like this tournament, I have done well in the past here so it definitely hurts.

"I have to regroup and look forward. The bigger picture is the Olympic Games and the US Open and those are the places I really want to win so I have to make sure I am ready for that."

The 22nd-ranked Simon represented a tricky opponent for the rusty Federer, who had only resumed practice four days before arriving in Toronto and received a first-round bye.

[...]

"I was playing like I was in a dream," Simon said. "I just saw the ball and hit it as hard as possible."

[...]

After starting 2008 with a lead of 1,445 ranking points over the Spaniard [Rafael Nadal], an off-the-boil season which now includes 10 defeats in 53 matches has Federer facing the possibility of losing the top spot he has held for 234 weeks since 2004.

While Nadal cannot overtake him even with a second title in Canada, site of his first career hardcourt crown, the pressure is now intense on 12-time Grand Slam champion Federer.

Only a few hundred points will separate the leading pair if Nadal does well this week.

Some Rafa fans (and Raja haters) are predicting Federer will want to retire at the top of the rankings (like former World #1 Justine Henin did three months ago) which would probably mean he would have to do so sometime this year. They don't really understand Roger Federer. He has stated that he wants to play at Wimbledon during the Olympics in 2012 and I believe him. He is a mere 2 titles away from being declared the Greatest Of All Time--you don't get to that level without a little (or even a lot of) adversity. Pete Sampras on his way to 14 was demolished in two consecutive U.S. Open finals by Marat Safin (2000) and Lleyton Hewitt (2001) before winning his 14th major over Agassi in New York in 2002 (and immediately retired at the age of 31). Federer is currently 26 (turning 27) on August 8, 2008.

He may lose his World #1 ranking by his birthday (doubtful) but he will keep his eyes focussed on major titles #13, #14 and #15. And I still believe he will win the French Open. Go Roger!

WIMBLEDON 2008: Men's Final Preview

Roger Federer SUI (1)	vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2).

Here we go again. Federer-Nadal III. The top two players are playing in the Wimbledon final for the third consecutive year. Actually this will be the seventh time the two have played against each other in a major final and only 4 weeks after the last time they played.

Nadal has a 4-2 lead in the head-to-head but Nadal has won the 4 Grand Slam matches they have played on clay (3 finals and the 2005 semifinal) while Federer ha won the two times they have played on grass (2007 and 2006 Wimbledon finals). However, Nadal put a beatdown on Federer in this year's French Open final 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 as well as beating Federer 7-5 6-7(3) 6-3 despite the World #1 having 5-2 leads in the first two sets of the Hamburg final on clay 6 weeks ago.

Nadal is also one of three players (Dominic Hrbaty and Andy Murray are the others) who have a favorable head-to-head career record against Federer. In fact, Nadal leads 11-6 but 9 of those wins have been on clay. Nadal hasn't beaten Federer on a surface other than clay since 2004.

However, the Nadal of 2008 is a much better player than the Nadal of 2004 and even the Nadal of 2007 who almost beat Federer in last year's Wimbledon final.

However, if Federer is serious about being the Greatest Of All Time, he will find a way to win tomorrow. If Nadal wins, it will be interesting to see if that inspires Federer to improve his game so that he actually does break Pete Sampras record of 14 majors.

We shall see.

PREDICTION: Federer in 5 sets or Nadal in 3 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2008: Men's Semifinals Preview

The 2008 Wimbledon Men' s semifinals are now set. Mad Professah correctly predicted Federer and Schuettler's quarterfinal wins. This Men's semifinal preview (like the Women's Semifinal Preview posted yesterday) are all about inevitability and the Number 3.

Roger Federer SUI (1) vs. Marat Safin RUS. Federer has played the mercurial Russian ten times before and beaten the 2-time Grand Slam champion eight times. Of course the most famous match the two have played was at the 2005 Australian Open where Safin defeated Federer in a thrilling 5-set semifinal match saving a 4th set match point in the process. Safin used to despise playing on grass and had never played well at Wimbledon before this year. In fact, Safin hasn't been playing well at any tournament since his 2005 win in Melbourne---he hasn't won a single ATP title since and has 15 total. Federer has 55 titles and last played Safin at Wimbledon in last year's 3rd round and won in 3 relatively tight sets 6-1 6-4 7-6(4). Safin (and Federer) are playing better this year, but the result will still be the same, the inevitable third match-up betweek Federer and Nadal in the Wimbledon final. PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

Rainer Schuettler GER vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). The "accidental semifinalist" Rainer Schuettler has had a pretty lucky draw since the only seed in his path to this point was a second round showdown with American James Blake in the second round which he won 6-4 in the 5th. Schuettler also had to win a 5-set match again Arnaud Clement in a 5 hour, 12 minute match spread over two days just to reach this semifinal showdown with World #2 Rafael Nadal. Nadal has only dropped one set this tournament, against talented big-serving Ernest Gulbis in the second round, and played 3 tiebreaks, winning all of them. It's unlikely that Schuettler, who is known for being in incredible shape but has no singular weapon, will be able to win as many as 6 games in a set. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2008: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

The 2008 Wimbledon Men's Quarterfinals have now been set.

Roger Federer SUI (1) vs Mario Ancic CRO. Mario "Baby Goran" Ancic was the last player to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon, 39 matches ago. Since then, Federer has become the potential Greatest Of All Time and won 5 consecutive Wimbledon titles and 38 consecutive matches at Wimbledon. Ancic has become a lawyer and helped his country win the Davis Cup. In the previous round he had to come back from 2 sets down against Spanish lefty Fernando Verdasco to win 13-11 in the 5th. Ancic has a huge serve and is a good volleyer but has a suspect ground game. Federer will not underestimate the Croat and be prepared to take him out in as few sets as possible in order to save energy for what may turn out to be a tricky semifinal match for the World #1. Mad Professah's Pick: Federer in 3 sets.

Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (13) Marat Safin RUS vs Marcos Baghdatis CYP (10) Feliciano Lopez ESP (31). I really didn't think "Crazy Marat" could continue playing good tennis for so many consecutive rounds (I bet Marat didn't think he could either!) plus I was looking forward to a possible all-Swiss semifinal. I also thought that the excessively talented Marcis Baghdatis would be able to make a break through against the pulchritudinous lefty Spaniard Feliciano Lopez. But Lopez continued his excellent serving and volleying to take out the Cypriot 8-6 in the 5th set. Predicting a winner between Safin and Lopez is difficult. Which Safin will show up? Clearly he has enough talent to beat anyone in the field, if he's on and his opponent is not playing their best. Somehow I suspect that Feliciano will figure out a way to frustrate the mercurial Russian and give himself anothre chance to show that his play at the 2007 U.S. Open against Federer was no fluke. Mad Professah's pick: Lopez in 4 sets.

Janko Tipsarevic SRB Rainer Schuettler GER vs Marin Cilic CRO Arnaud Clement FRA. Does anyone care? Somehow youth was not served in the round of 16, with the Serbian and the Croat both going out to the wily veterans. The Powers That Be have scheduled this match on Court 1 at the same time as the Nadal-Murray Gotterdamerung on Center Court. There's not much between these two players, They both have won 4 career titles. They both have reached one major final (Clement Australian Open in 2001, Schuettler the Australian Open in 2003). It's doubtful that anyone will be watching. However although both of these veterans are playing well, Schuettler leads their rivalry 4-1 and I suspect the German will win this battle of the Europeans. Mad Professah's pick: Schuettler in 4 sets.

Richard Gasquet FRA (8) Andy Murray GBR (12) vs Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Yes, Murray has never beaten Nadal in 3 tries. And yes, Nadal is playing bat-shit crazy good tennis this year---probably the best of everyone in the field. But still I think Nadal is likely to lose this match. Murray does have the game to beat both Federer and Nadal, and after Monday's heroics versus Richard Gasquet he now has the good will of the entire British Empire behind him. Whomever wins this match basically gets a walk into the 2008 Wimbledon Men's Final. Can an audience lift a player over a superior opponent? We will see on Wednesday. Mad Professah's pick: Murray in 5 sets.

Tommy Haas and Marat Safin Shirtless Together

Greg Hernandez over at Out in Hollywood has some great shots of hotties Tommy Haas and Marat Safin in vintage tennis clothes and some more pictures of them wearing very little clothes. Fun :)

Something to do on a Memorial Day when the French Open is basically rained out!