ATP Tour Finals: Semifinal Review and Final Preview

World #1 Rafael Nadal will face World #2 Roger Federer in the final match of the 2010 ATP tennis season at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London today. As MadProfessah predicted on Friday, Federer was able to dismiss World #3 Novak Djokovic in straight sets while World #5 Andy Murray put up a stern challenge to prevent this 22nd meeting in the storied rivalry between the two greatest players of their generation.

Semifinals Review

The two semifinals were thrilling in their own way. Federer demolished the Serb in a 6-1 6-4 match which was not as close as the score reveals. Essentially, Federer won two 6-1 sets but went through "a bad patch" at the beginning of the second set where he lost 3 consecutive games. The Swiss quickly recovered and dispatched Djokovic to continue his preparation for next week's Davis Cup Final matchup versus France in Belgrade.

The Nadal-Murray match was one of the best matches of the year, with the Spaniard (barely) prevailing 7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(6). There were some incredible 27 and 36(!) stroke rallies in the first set, with  incredibly high quality tennis on both sides of the net. Murray basically lost the first set because after enjoying a hot serving streak for the majority of the set, in the tiebreaker he couldn't buy a first serve. If you can't serve well, it makes it very difficult to win  a tiebreaker where every point is effectively a breakpoint. Interestingly the second set was similar to the second set in the Federer-Djokovic match where after basically playing to a draw at 3-all suddenly Nadal went through a bad patch  and lost 3 games in a row. (Murray grew more aggressive and was able to break Nadal twice in ten minutes to win the set). In the third set Nadal got the early break and served for the match at 5-4 where, inexplicably, he was broken after holding a match point. Would he be able to prevail in the inevitable tiebreak? It didn't look like it when Murray won the first three points of the tiebreak and led 4-2 on the change over. However, as usual, Nadal did not give up and won the mini-break back to hold a second match point 5-6 on Murray's serve.Murray was able to defend that point with some incredible gets and at 6-6 went for a huge cross-court winner which flew a couple inches wide giving Nadal his third match point on his serve. The World #1 was able to win the match point with his patented inside-out cross-court forehand winner into the far corner of the court to reach the Tour Final for the first time in his storied career.

Finals Preview

This is the 22nd meeting between the 24-year-old 9-time grand slam champion and the 29-year-old 16-time grand slam champion. The younger player enjoys a 14-7 career head-to-head edge; all but 4 of their meetings have been in finals (where Nadal leads 12-5) but at the season-ending championships Federer leads 2-0 (but those wins came when Nadal was usually exhausted at the end of the season). In hard court finals, Nadal leads 2-1 (2009 Australian Open final, 2006 Dubai final). Nadal is also experiencing one of history's greatest seasons ever, having won every clay court match he played this year and winning the last three consecutive grand slam titles with a better than even shot of claiming the "Nadal slam" in Melbourne in a few months.

There are four possibilities for the match result (tabulated below with associated estimated probabilities)

Match Result              Probability
Federer wins in 2 sets        33% 
Nadal wins in 2 sets          17%
Federer wins in 3 sets        20%
Nadal wins in 3 sets          30%

This computes to a 53% chance for Federer to win with a 47% chance for Nadal, if there is an equally likelihood of a 2-set and 3-set match. Actually, looking at their 21 previous matches, only 8 of their matches have gone the distance. All that being said, the match should be close and exciting!

MadProfessah's prediction: Federer in 2 sets; Nadal in 3 sets with a distinct edge to whomever wins the first set.

World Cup Final: Spain Wins 1-0

Spain defeated the Netherlands 1-0 in over time to win that country's first World Cup. Paul the Octopus was right again, MadProfessah was not. Iniesta, above, scored the winning goal in the 116th minute of play.

WIMBLEDON 2010: Isner-Mahut Ends 70-68

On his 5th match point, on the third day of play, after 11 hours and 5 minutes, John Isner hit a backhand down-the-line winner to pass NicolasMahut to end the longest and greatest tennis match ever at the score 6-4 3-6 6-7(7) 7-6(8) 70-68.

Serena Williams Wins Record 3rd Laureus Award

Serena Williams won her 3rd career Laureus World Sports Award in Dubai on Wednesday after she was named Laureus Sportswoman of the Year for 2009, 7 years after she won her first. In 2007, she won the Laureus Comeback Award, bringing her total to three, the most won by a female. Only Roger Federer, who has four, has won more. Federer was up for Sportsman of the Year for 2009 but lost to Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt, who won his second Laureus Award. Kim Clijsters won the Laureus Comeback Award.

Serena said:

"I am just so delighted to win this Award, but very disappointed I cannot be in Abu Dhabi to say thank you in person. It's my third Laureus Award which is amazing and I would like to say thank you to all the Academy Members who voted for me and to the world's media who nominated me. Last year had its ups and downs, so to get this support is fantastic.

"As a tennis player you look at the amazing names of the Academy Members - like John McEnroe, Martina Navratilova, Boris Becker and Monica Seles - who have won so many Grand Slams and they know what it takes to do that. There is nothing better in sport than being acknowledged by the people that you looked up to when you were a young player.

"The Laureus Awards have been a constant reflection of my career, winning in 2003 and 2007, and I think I was also nominated four more times. I know only Roger Federer has more Awards, so it would be cool to catch him up.

"I've had a few injury problems over the years, so it's been great to get back to the top and be World No 1 again. It's going to be an interesting year with Justine Henin back, but I'm playing well and it was great to win in Australia, and I still want to win every tournament I play. It's going to be a very exciting 2010."

Congratulations, Serena!

AUSSIE OPEN 2010: Women's Final Preview

Justine Henin BEL v. Serena Williams USA (1)

One of the most exciting major tournaments in recent tennis history, and the first Grand Slam tennis tournament of the new decade, is hurtling to a conclusion with a mouthwatering final where the competitors have a combined 18 Grand Slam titles between them, which is far more than we have seen since the legendary Steffi Graf was still competing in finals more than a decade ago.

Craig Hickman has done his typically excellent job of summarizing the background as well as the liabilities and strengths of both Serena Williams and Justine Henin coming into tonight's final (which will be on at 12:30am PST, 3:30am EST Saturday).

Briefly, Serena leads their overall head-to-head 7-6, (4-1 on hard courts) but trails 2-4 in major tournaments, the majority of which came in a string of 3 losses to the Belgian in 3 consecutive grand slam quarterfinals in 2007. Their last meeting was a devastating 6-2 6-0 demolition of Henin by Serena in Miami in March the following year; 6 weeks later Henin announced her retirement from competitive tennis.

Despite winning the doubles title with her sister for the second consecutive year, Serena's physical frailty is apparent. In her tense semi-final win over Li Na, Serena at times was barely moving. Her serve has kept her in the tournament and has been impeccable. Henin has been serving atrociously but her overall game is still as impressive as it was before her hiatus; she possesses every shot in tennis, combined with surprising power and superior movement. She has displayed mental frailty like in her Brisbane loss to Clijsters and in her win against Elena Dementieva, but she has the support of her coach Carlos Rodriguez to draw upon.

Serena has the sharpest competitive spirit of any player on tour, and particularly in Australia Serena has often played some of her best tennis on her way to winning four Australian Open titles (in 2003 over Venus in what some commentators call the most competitive match between the sisters; in 2005 over Lindsay Davenport after trailing a set and a break she won 9 games in a row to win the title--this after saving two match points against Maria Sharapova the round before; and in 2007 over Sharapova she displayed her most impressive level of play, ever only allowing her opponent a mere 3 games).

Although I have correctly predicted the outcomes of 3 of the last 6 matches in the tournament, I want to change my method for prognostication and try and use probabilities (I am a math professor after all!) There are four possible ocurrences: Serena in 2 sets, Serena in 3 sets, Henin in 3 sets and Henin in 2 sets). I evaluate the probabilities of these events at 54%, 40%, 60% and46% respectively. (Of course these numbers are simply estimates, with the 2-set probability coming directly from their overall head-to-head record and the 3-set probability coming from my assessment of Serena's stamina). Crunching the numbers that gives Henin an overall 53% chance of winning, which is significantly better than a coin toss.

MadProfessah's pick: Henin (Williams in 2 sets, Henin in 3 sets).

US OPEN 2009: Serena Apologizes For Saturday's Outbursts

Serena Williams issued a press statement on Sunday which said

Last night everyone could truly see the passion I have for my job. Now that I have had time to gain my composure I can see that while I don't agree with the unfair line call in the heat of battle I let my passion and emotion get the better of me and as a result handled the situation poorly.

and then amended it to include a full apology earlier today

I want to amend my press statement of yesterday, and want to make it clear as possible - I want to sincerely apologize FIRST to the lines woman, Kim Clijsters, the USTA, and tennis fans everywhere for my inappropriate outburst. I'm a woman of great pride, faith and integrity, and I admit when I'm wrong.

I need to make it clear to all young people that I handled myself inappropriately and it's not the way to act -- win or lose, good call or bad call in any sport, in any manner.

I like to lead by example. We all learn from experiences both good and bad. I will learn and grow from this, and be a better person as a result.

I do think it is reasonable for Serena to apologize and completely inappropriate for Mary Carillo to say that Serena should have been prevented from playing the Women's Doubles with Venus (which they won easily earlier today).