US OPEN 2010: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2010.

Roger Federer SUI (2) vs. Robin Soderling SWE (5). The showdown everyone has been waiting for since the draw was released is this repeat from the 2010 French Open quarterfinal where the Big Swede ended Federer's streak of 23 consecutive major semifinals on a cold, wet day in Paris. Soderling has become a legitimate Top 5 player, playing in the last two Roland Garros finals (losing both). Federer's recent disappointments at majors have all come at the hands of tall, muscular, mobile players like Soderling (French Open 2010) Berdych (Wimbledon 2010) and Juan Martin del Potro (US Open 2009). It is supremely possible that this could be another addition to that string. But, I doubt it. Federer has something to prove, and like most great players hates to lose to any player twice in a row. For Federer to win he will need to play better than he did against Jurgen Melzer in the 4th Round, and he has to hope that his felicitous luck continues. PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

Gael Monfils FRA (17) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). The extremely gifted French player has never beaten the Serbian champion, but a lot of their matches have actually been pretty close. The annoying aspect of Monfils' game is that despite being (in Jim Courier's words) "the most gifted athlete tennis has ever produced," the 6'4" 176-pound speedster plays a defensive, counter-punching style of tennis. Monfils did well to dismiss his even more gifted French compatriot Richard Gasquet in straight sets in the fourth round (winning the last 5 games) to reach his first ever US Open quarterfinal. Djokovic has also played well, easily dismissing American Mardy Fish in straight sets.Unless New York City gets very hot and/or Monfils (does and) starts playing the way all his coaches have been begging him to play (lights out, aggressive tennis) Djokovic will be in his fourth consecutive US Open semifinal, where he would most likely face Roger Federer for the third consecutive year.  PREDICTION: Djokovic in 4 sets. 

Andy Murray GBR (4) Sam Querrey USA (20) Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (25) vs. Mikhail Youzhny RUS (12). This is the dark horse spoiler quarter where Andy Murray went out early and loudly to the suddenly sharp other player from Switzerland. Wawrinka did very well to follow-up that big win with a strong-hearted outlasting of American Sam Querrey in 5-sets on a tough, windy day to win in just under 5 hours. Youzhny also dashed American hopes by taking out Marathon Man John Isner in the 3rd round. This will be the quiet quarter because no one expects the winner of this match to be able to win their next match and reach the 2010 US Open final. I agree, but Youzhny would be the player who could pose more questions for his future Spanish opponent. PREDICTION: Wawrinka in 3 sets or Youzhny in 4 or 5 sets.

Francisco Verdasco ESP (8) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1). This is a repeat of the now-legendary 2009 Australian Open Men's Semifinal where Nadal beat Verdasco in a 5-hour, 14-minute 5-sets instant classic. It's doubtful that this repeat will be as amazing as that match (very few matches in any year are). I'm sure many people would be satisfied if this match is as exciting as Verdasco's last match, where he came back from 2-sets to love down against David Ferrer and won the 5th set despite being down a service break and then 1-4 in the tie-break--winning the last 6 points of the match! Nadal is playing the best tennis I have ever seen him play, and is clearly the best player in the tournament so far (he still has not dropped serve!) but he hasn't really been tested. He has clearly had the better half of the draw and potentially will be able to reach the final of a major by only facing one Top 10 player. Verdasco has never beaten Nadal in ten attempts, but if he plays like his life depends on it, just maybe he can turn that stat around. After all, before Soderling beat Federer in France, he had lost to the Swiss player 11-times in a row. Is Verdasco how one pronounces Soderling in Spanish? PREDICTION: Nadal in 4 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2008: Men's Top 10 Preview

The 2008 Wimbledon Championships begin on Sunday. The following preview was begun before the draw was released, but updated afterwards.

1. Roger FEDERER (SUI). The 5-time Wimbledon champion has had a horrible 2008 (for him), coming into The Championships for the first time since 2003 without having won either a major or ATP Masters Series title. In addition, the last Grand Slam match he played, at the Roland Garros final a scant few weeks ago, the World #1 suffered his worst defeat ever, losing 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 to his arch-nemesis and World #2 Rafael Nadal. All of these factors multiply to increase the odds against Federer winning his sixth consecutive Wimbledon title. However, he has won 59 grass court matches in a row, and if there is any court in the world where he can still impose his will by sheer determination, it is Centre Court at Wimbledon--but this time he will have the person who took him out of the 2008 Australian Open in his half of the draw, Novak Djokovic. I think Roger will appreciate the opportunity for revenge. PREDICTION: Champion.




2. Rafael NADAL (ESP). The 4-time consecutive French Open champion has also managed to be in the Wimbledon final for the last two years and in 2007 was a point or two from an unassailable lead in the 5th set. Miraculously, Federer was able to escape to win the title. In the year since that unlucky defeat Nadal has improved his game by quantum levels: his two-handed backhand is now a dangerous weapon, his serve which was previously merely effective is now occasionally lethal and his confidence is at near stratospheric levels. He really believes that he can beat anyone on any surface at any time. At Queen's Club he proved that he could beat the #4 and #3 best grass court players in the world (Roddick and Djokovic). Whether this can be repeated at Wimbledon will be revealed in the next fortnight. PREDICTION: Finalist.



3. Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB). For most of this year, Djokovic has been considered the hottest player on tour having won the 2008 Australian Open title and two ATP Masters Series titles (Indian Wells and Rome). There was much discussion that the ever decreasing gap between the World #3 and the World #2--until the clay court season. Nadal has now defeated Djokovic relatively easily in three consecutive matches and the two have played an astonishing 11 times in the last year with Nadal winning 8 of their showdowns including every Grand Slam match The only way the two will meet at Wimbledon is in the Men's Final which would be a repeat of the Queen's final which was won by Nadal. PREDICTION: Semi-finalist.



4. Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS). The hapless Russian finally broke through at "the fifth Slam" this year to capture his second ATP Masters series title in Miami. However he has never been able to get past the semifinal round of any major--it's highly unlikely that will change at Wimbledon. PREDICTION: Early round loss.



5. David FERRER (ESP). Although there are now two Spaniards in the Top 5 players in the world, only one of them really has a chance to win the tournament. David Ferrer is not that Spaniard. PREDICTION: At best Quarter-finalist.
   


6. Andy RODDICK (USA). The 2-time Wimbledon finalist has the game to win the title this year, but does he have the belief? The resurgent Nadal took out the American at Queen's, where Roddick had previously won the title 4 times before. And Djokovic has the weapons and tennis acumen to take out the American's more rounded game. If Roger Federer did not exist Roddick would probably have 5 Grand Slam titles (3 Wimbledons and 2 US Opens) instead of the sole 2003 US Open title. Unfortunately for Roddick, Federer does exist but fortunately they are in opposite sections of the draw thus year. PREDICTION: At least Semi-finalist.



7. David NALBANDIAN (ARG). A surprising Wimbledon finalist (losing to Lleyton Hewitt in 2002) at age 20 a year ahead of his arch-rival Roger Federer, the hard hitting Argentine with impeccable timing and questionable stamina has long been a thorn in the side of the winner of every Wimbledon Men's singles title since 2003. Last year Nalbandian evened out their head-to-head rivalry by winning two consecutive matches on hard courts on his way to winning consecutive ATP Masters Series tournamenys in Madrid and Paris. Unfortunately, Nalbandian has not been able to find his late 2007 form this year and it is unlikely that he will make a mark on the 2008 Championships. PREDICTION: 4th Round Loss.
   
   
8. Richard GASQUET (FRA). Last year's surprising Wimbledon semi-finalist (by defeating Roddick in a garish display of over 90 winners) has not been making much of a splash on the ATP Tour or in the major tournaments since then. Although perhaps it was the Frenchman's breakthrough that spurred his countrymen Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils to great success in the first two major tournaments of 2008. However, since his pitiful performance in Davis Cup against the U.S. this spring "Richie Red Shoes" has been worse than pitiful, he has been absent. PREDICTION: Early Round Loss.



9. James BLAKE (USA). The second best American player has long been in the shadow of his lightning-serving compatriot but has managed to follow up his breakthrough year in 2006 to maintain his berth in the Top 10 for nearly two years. Unfortunately he has not been able to bring his best tennis to the majors so far (except at his hometown Grand Slam in New York City). He definitely has the game and the physical athleticism to do well on grass. Tough break being in Roddick's quarter of the draw. PREDICTION: 4th Round Loss.



10. Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP). Being a finalist at the 2006 Australian Open has been a career highlight so far for the flashy Cypriot who has repeatedly been involved in some of the best matches in Grand Slam tournaments (v. Hewitt in Australia this year, v. Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2007 and v. Agassi at U.S. Open in 2006) but rarely actually winning these thrillers. Hopefully he will bring his brilliant game and desire-to-win to Wimbledon and perhaps this time he'll win a repeat thriller against Djokovic in the quarterfinal, although a possible 4th round match against Nalbandian could have even more fireworks. PREDICTION: Quarter-finalist.

Federer Records PSA on HIV/AIDS for UNICEF

While checking up on my recent post on Richard ("I'm not gay") Gasquet I ran into the new Outsports Jock Talk blog which alerted me to Roger Federer recording a HIV/AIDS PSA in his role as UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador to be released today, World AIDS Day, Saturday December 1.

Gasquet Denies Being Gay (Again)

Towleroad has a story on World #8 Richard Gasquet of France again denying he's gay. Here's an excerpt from the interview:

Q. Now your matches are finished. Do you still have any plan to go around the city maybe with your uncle or your girlfriend?
RICHARD GASQUET: My uncle? No. My girlfriend, no. I have no girlfriend, so I will try to find one, one Chinese girl. Why not? Why not? I lost 6-1, 6-1. It will be very hard for me tonight. I’m ready to lose, you know.

Q. Who is the girl watching your match with your uncle?
RICHARD GASQUET: Not my girl. I don’t know. Not my girl, for sure. No, no, no, I have just friends. Men friends, but I’m not gay.

Over at Craig Hickman's Tennis Blog Gasquet is always referred to "Richie Red Shoes." Maybe that should be changed to Richie Red Shorts!