Even in Turin, Italy the news of "Frontrunner" Hillary Clinton's astonishing win of the New Hampshire primary election on Tuesday has been jaw-dropping. On MyDD alumni Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller's new project OpenLeft, I posited these three reasons for her victory:
I think Clinton's win was due to (in order of relative importance on her making up the deficit)Last time I checked the upcoming primary schedule Clinton was expected to do well in the Nevada caucuses (Jan 19), Obama should win South Carolina (Jan 26). Clinton should win the two states who have had their delgates stripped (Michigan Jan 15 and Florida Jan 26) and who knows what the heck will happen on "Tsunami Tuesday" February 5th. It is doubtful that Edwards will win everywhere, but he should have enough delegates to deny a majority to eith Clinton or Obama! One thing is clear, the race will very much still be alive by the time I get back to the United States on Friday January 18th.
3) Absentee ballots (some fraction of voters had voted for Clinton when he NH lead was huge prior to the Obama bounce from Iowa).
2) Lying white voters telling pollsters they would vote for Obama and then not being able to do it when they got to the polling booth. Heck, they even lied when they came out of the booth! (exit polls put the vote split at 39-39--Obama got 2 percentage points less--that's your lying deficit.)
1) Too Much (Polling) Info: all the polls saying that Clinton was going to lose big made NH voters (especially women and white voters) who would have voted for Obama decide that they could risk voting for Hillary. I think if we lived in a country (i.e. France) where publication of polling data within 72 hours of the election is illegal, Obama would have won.
