2005 Australian Open Predictions

Here are the latest WTA world tennis rankings for the Women (Like most gay men, I follow women's tennis much more closely than Men's tennis--the personalities and games are for more interesting!) with my predictions for how they will fare in the next two weeks at the first Glam Slam tournament of 2005, the Australian Open:

1. L. Davenport

Lindsay had a remarkable year in 2004, despite not winning a major she was deep in the mix in every single one, especially the U.S. Open and Wimnbledon, where she lost to the eventual winners, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Maria Sharapova, respectively. At the French she lost in the fourth round to Elena Dementieva, who got to the Final and at last year's Australian Open she lost an excruciatingly long match against the eventual titleholder, Justine Henin-Hardenne. She was particularly dominant during the summer on the fast hardcourts she grew up playing on in Southern California. Unfortunately, the ReboundAce surface that the Australian Open is played on is nowhere as fast as hardcourts. It's not a good sign for this years AO that she withdrew from a match earlier in the month with a thigh injury, but perhaps she was just saving her body for Melbourne. Prediction: Semi-finalist

2. A. Mauresmo

Amelie also had a breakthrough year in 2004. She became Number One on September 13, 2004, the second player to do so without winning a Grand Slam first (Kim Clijsters became Number One in 2003 the same way). At the Grand Slams, she twice lost to eventual finalist Elena Dementieva (no, I don't know how either) at the French and U.S. Opens. At Wimbledon, she played a very strong match against Serena Williams, coming back when down in the first set to win it, and leading in the second before losing in 3. At last year's Australian Open she had to default her quarterfinal match to Fabiola Zuluaga, a player she hadn't lost against in over four years, due to a lower back strain. Amelie usually plays well in Australia, it was the site of her first (and so far, only,) Grand Slam final (against Hingis, in 1999). If she's healthy, she'll do well.Prediction: Finalist

3. A. Myskina

The 2004 French Open champion was the first of the recent horde of Russians to win a Grand Slam title, though she is generally not considered the most talented (that would be either Sharapova or Kuznetsova). Regardless, she has maintained her #1 Russian ranking for all of 2004. At last year's Australian she lost to eventual Finalist, Kim Clijsters in the Quarters. After winning the French, she flamed out early at both Wimbledon and New York. She lost a number of long, tight matches in important tournaments after holding leads (against Henin-Hardenne at the Olympics and against Serena Williams at the WTA Tour Championships). Prediction: Quarter-Finalist

4. M. Sharapova

What more can one say about Maria? Clearly, after 2004 the rest of the tour knows that there's a new sheriff in town. She's currently thought to be the most highly paid female athlete in the world. At the tender age of 17, Sharapova got to her first French Open quarterfinal and then a few weeks later barrelled through the Wimbledon field, ending with a straight set victory over a shocked Serena Williams. Although she followed that up with a number of disappointing results during the hard court season she finished the season on a high note by defeating an injured Serena Williams in a wild season-ending WTA Tour Championships final. However, she's never played well in Australia. Prediction: Quarter-Finalist

5. S. Kuznetsova

Long identified as the most talented of the upcoming Russian players by Martina Navratilova and others, Svetlana finally broke through to her win her first Grand Slam title at the U.S. Open over Dementieva after an injured Lindsay Davenport could not keep up with her in their semi-final match. The rest of her 2004 Grand Slam outings were pretty dismal, but perhaps her New York win should give her the confidence to go further than she has in the past in Melbourne. Prediction: Quarter-Finalist

6. E. Dementieva

Oh, Elena! Despite making two Grand Slam finals in 2004 (French and U.S.) Dementieva can not really be considered a threat to win a major until she locates a professional caliber serve. It is true that all her other strokes are quite strong, but they are not enough to win when you start of 0-30 in every one of your service games. Prediction: Quarter-Finalist

7. S. Williams

Serena Williams has a lot to prove in 2005. After dominating the Tour for most of 2002 and 2003 she was unable to win a Grand Slam title in 2004, despitre three attempts. Worse, two of those losses came to her blood enemy, Jennifer Capriati (U.S. and French Quarterfinals). In her mind, she is the defending Australian Open Champion (from 2003). However, she has now lost twice consecutively (in important finals) to the new "It Girl," Maria Sharapova. Nothing motivates a true Diva as strongly as an incorrectly focussed spotlight.Prediction: Finalist

8. J. Henin-Hardenne

The current Australian Open Champion is not defending her title due to the mysterious virus that has sidetracked the former #1 player for over a year.

9. V. Williams

Venus Williams has not been in a Grand Slam final since the 2003 Wimbledon final and has not won one since the 2001 U.S. Open. It is clear to everyone else, if not the Williams household, that the rest of the field has caught up, and to some extent surpassed, the former 'ghetto superstars.' If she doesn't make a change in her preparation soon, it's likely there will be no more Grand Slam titles in her future. Despite making the 2003 Australian Open final (and losing to Serena), Venus has never played very well in Australia. Prediction: Fourth Round

10. J. Capriati

She's so over.